000 AGXX40 KNHC 140657 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER TO 28N92W THEN STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO FIRE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY STALL OUT...THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT N WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE SE GULF AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA/FLORIDA KEYS. THIS UPPER FEATURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE W. 1012 MB LOW PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N88W WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH REACHING FROM 22N TO 28N ALONG 88W. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MAXIMUM WITH SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH WHILE CONTINUING WESTWARD AND MOVING INLAND OVER SE TEXAS/NE MEXICO MON NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SETUP IN THE NE GULF TUE...SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THU...AS A COLD FRONT MAY CLIP THE NE GULF WATERS MID-WEEK WITH LITTLE FANFARE. OVERALL...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE GULF WITH 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE HALF AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW HALF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE BY MID-WEEK AS THE HIGH DEVELOPS...WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT EXPECTED BASIN-WIDE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA ALONG 84W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 18N NEAR THE WAVE AXIS...SUPPORTED BY A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL PUSH W OF THE AREA BY MON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 8-10 FT SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND HIGH PRES RIDGING TO THE N OF THE AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN MON NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES EXPECTED BASIN- WIDE...AND 1-3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 3-6 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TO 7 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD WILL REMAIN WELL THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MON...WHILE ASSOCIATED SWELLS KEEP 4-7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A PAIR OF MID-UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SECOND NE OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...1022 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR THE BAHAMAS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SW-W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE N OF 27N...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS NEAR HISPANIOLA AND 3-5 FT SEAS S OF 27N OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD SENDS LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...UP TO 7-10 FT N OF 24N E OF 70W...TOWARD THE SE UNITED STATES AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN COASTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE NW PORTION WED THROUGH THU WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL WITH WEAK LOW PRES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG IT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.