000 AGXX40 KNHC 131727 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 127 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN TX SSE ACROSS THE SW GULF TO THE S-CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 23N97W. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NW AT 13 KT THIS AFTERNOON MOVING INLAND OVER NE MEXICO THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM... AND WILL BE CARRIED IN THE GRIDS INTO EARLY TONIGHT. E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS... SEAS TO 10 FT...ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM NE OF THE LOW WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS EVENING. A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 26N84.5W CONTINUES WSW AT 09 KT WITH CONVECTION OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE DENOTED IN WEATHER GRIDS. SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE...SO WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF WEAKENING THE LOW TO A TROUGH REACHING A PSN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY SUN AND TO THE SW GULF EARLY MON...THEN MOVING INLAND OVER NE MEXICO ON MON EVENING. ONLY NE-E-SE 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT EXPECTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW COASTAL PLAINS WILL DIP INTO THE NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL ON SUN...THEN DRIFT BACK N AGAIN AS THE TROUGH SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE E GULF MOVES INLAND NE MEXICO ON MON EVENING. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE FL BIG BEND SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON MON...WITH A HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 27N84W ON MON NIGHT. THE HIGH SHOULD SHIFT W TO OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF ON TUE NIGHT WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH THU. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER THE NE GULF ON TUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON WITH EASTERLY TRADES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SUN EVENING. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE WAVE...BUT THAT UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUN. EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT/SEAS TO 10 FT THROUGH SUNRISE SUN...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT SUN AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR ONE LAST NOCTURNAL PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ON SUN NIGHT INTO SUNRISE MON. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX SUPPORTING ONLY 20 KT MAXIMUM TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN THE NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT ENHANCEMENT WILL RETURN ALONG THE NW COLOMBIAN COAST. FARTHER TO THE EAST...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUN AND MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS...AND THE FL STRAITS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUN AS THE UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS W OF THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 24N65W AND ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR 25N69W. THIS UPPER LOW MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SE BAHAMAS ON SUN. A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW TO THE S OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N66W HAS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR 28N70W...AND IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR 31N68W. THE NORTHERN PORTION EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W WILL PASS W ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND SUN AND LIKELY ENHANCE CONVECTION. BY SUN EVENING EXPECT A SURFACE HIGH WILL REACH NEAR 31N69W WITH A RIDGE W ALONG 31N TO SE GA. AS TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD PASSES N ON MON NIGHT THE HIGH SILL SHIFT S TO NEAR 30N72W WITH A RIDGE SW TO SEBASTIAN INLET FL AT SUNRISE TUE. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT FURTHER S TO NEAR 27N70W WITH A RIDGE W TO FT PIERCE FL AT SUNRISE WED...THEN SHIFT E ALONG 27N WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING SW TO PORT EVERGLADES FL AT SUNRISE THU. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY WED...REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO NE FL EARLY THU WITH THE SW FLOW INCREASING 15-20 KT WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT ON WED NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO MOVE N ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS EFFECTING THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 65-55W FROM SUN- WED...BUT ONLY EXPECT SEAS OF 7-9 FT PRIMARILY IN SWELL TO AFFECT THE WATERS ALONG 65W ON MON NIGHT AND TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.