000 AGXX40 KNHC 130624 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 224 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 NM W-SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA MOVING W-SW AROUND 5-10 KT. NOW THAT IT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE LOW WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE WEAKENING OR OPENING IT UP INTO A TROUGH BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO/ TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS STALL IT OUT IN THE NW GULF WHILE STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST...WITH BOTH KEEPING THE FRONT JUST INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N96W WHICH FORMED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS LOW IS MOVING NW AT 10 KT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND INTO EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 11 FT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY THIS TIME SUN AS THE FEATURE DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO. WEAK HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE NE GULF TUE INTO WED WITH MORE TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PASS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUN...MOVING W OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PULSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDS ARE PULSING TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS NOTED BY RECENT ASCAT/ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER GUATEMALA AND LOWER PRES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MODERATE TO FRESH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS TO 25 KT EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. FARTHER TO THE EAST...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUN AND MON. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED W OF 55W...OTHER THAN NE SWELL TO 7 FT OVER THE WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE:LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR BIMINI IS SUPPORTING PLENTIFUL TSTMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BAHAMAS DRIFTING W-NW INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR TURKS AND CAICOS N OF HISPANIOLA WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N67W. A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS S OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N65W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SW NEAR 28N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW WITH SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING MAINLY MODERATE WINDS IN THE VICINITY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 22N74W. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL NE-E OF THE SW N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN BUILDING SWELLS OF 7-9 FT N OF 24N E OF 67W LATE MON THROUGH TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.