000 AGXX40 KNHC 121815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE HEADING WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS THAN HAS BEEN NOTED EARLIER...WITH UKMET JOINING THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED THAT THE LOW PRES WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...THEN ONWARD TOWARD INTO THE NW GULF THROUGH MON. THE UKMET THEN DIVERGES AND INDICATES THE LOW REFORMING AND DEEPENING BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF INDICATING NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...LOW PRES HAS FORMED ALONG AN OLD TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SW GULF. AN ELONGATED AREA OF CONVECTION IS FLARING FROM THE WESTERN COAST OF YUCATAN TO NORTH OF TAMPICO. BUOY 42055 INDICATED 35 KT GUSTS IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT OVERALL WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT IN THE AREA OF MAIN CONVECTION. THE BUOY IS REPORTING SEAS TO 6 FT. GIVEN THE FETCH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG SE FLOW...SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE W CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT AN AN ACCOMPANYING TROUGH MIGRATE WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST AND STALL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING ACCORDINGLY. FARTHER NORTH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND STALL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL PASS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUN...THEN W OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEEK. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PULSE TO 25 KT...MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE TO 25 KT TONIGHT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS TO 25 KT ON SUN. FARTHER TO THE EAST...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUN AND MON. NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED W OF 55W...OTHER THAN NE SWELL TO 6 FT OVER THE WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE:LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N65W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING FROM 31N63W TO 25N70W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RELATED TO THESE FEATURES ARE SCATTERED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA. FARTHER WEST...A WEAK LOW PRES AREA THAT WAS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE NW BAHAMAS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS WEST. WEAK RIDGING WILL PERSIST N OF THE AREA...SHIFTING S TO ALONG 29N/30N EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER SOUTH...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD S OF 22N REACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SAT...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OCCASIONALLY S OF 22N LATE SAT BETWEEN HAITI AND THE TURKS/CAICOS. TROPICAL STORM WARNING EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL NE-E OF THE SW N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS WITH LITTLE IMPACTS EXPECTED...OTHER THAN BUILDING SWELL TO 8 FT REACHING 67W BY LATE TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.