000 AGXX40 KNHC 111736 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 136 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW GULF. WEAK LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE COMBINED LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE WILL DRIFT INTO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ LATE FRI INTO SAT AND WEAKEN. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES AREA CENTERED JUST N OF ABACO IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE FRI AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY SAT. MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICALHIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO COASTAL TEXAS AND THE LOW MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING THE WEAK LOW IN THE SW GULF DISSIPATING AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE VERACRUZ COAST THROUGH SAT...WITH A STALLED FRONT OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO DEPICT THE LOW IN THE BAHAMAS OPENING INTO A TROUGH AND MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN...AND THE NW GULF TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH MON. THE UKMET ON THE OTHER HAND...ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN TO A LESSER EXTENT...CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE LOW IN THE BAHAMAS DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN GULF THEN SHIFTING INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF...BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAVGEM LARGELY IGNORES THE BAHAMIAN LOW BUT DEVELOPS THE LOW IN THE SW GULF MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE LOW IN THE SW GULF. THE BAHAMIAN LOW PRES WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE SE GULF BY EARLY SAT. BUT GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING MAY GO A LITTLE STRONGER THAN GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR GETTING APPRECIABLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND FRI. MEANWHILE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PULSE TO 25 KT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL ALSO PULSE TO 25 KT TONIGHT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INTO YUCATAN. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. FARTHER TO THE EAST...A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WILL PASS WELL TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUN AND MON. NO MAJOR IMPACT IS EXPECTED W OF 55W OTHER THAN NE SWELL TO 6 FT OVER THE WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED JUST N OF ABACO IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG A TROUGH REACHING FROM 28N77W TO 25N78W. THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL ACROSS THE GULF STREAM INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRI. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. WEAK RIDGING WILL PERSIST N OF THE AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE WESTWARD S OF 22N REACHING THE MONA PASSAGE FRI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SAT...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OCCASIONALLY S OF 22N. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.