000 AGXX40 KNHC 091819 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 219 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRES PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHER GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FAR NE GULF...BREAKING THE RIDGE...WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL PUSH THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT THROUGH THU...THEN MOVE W ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND SAT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THIS WAVE BY SAT IN THE FAR SW GULF. THE GFS AND UKMET BOTH INDICATE THE LOW IN CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF. THE LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK HOWEVER AND THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH INLAND OVER BELIZE NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW N OF THE AREA WILL IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE FARTHER EAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WILL PASS 55W TONIGHT...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE WED/EARLY THU...AND PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL REMAIN STRONG WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS HANDLES THIS BETTER...BUT THERE IS NO MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DEPICTIONS OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN ATLC IS EXPECTED TO START TO PASS TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND RELATED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT MAY REACH THE NE PORTIONS OF OFFSHORE ZONE AMZ027...ABOUT 240 NM NE OF THE LEEWARDS...BY SUNDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. MWW3/NWPS BLEND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. RELATED CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIMINISHED. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAK. THE SAME MODELS ALSO SHOW THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW LONG THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER. BUT GIVEN ENOUGH CONVECTION THE TROUGH MAY PERSIST. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND ELSEWHERE N OF 22N. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WESTWARD S OF 22N...PASSING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE WED...THE MONA PASSAGE BY LATE THU...AND WINDWARD PASSAGE FRI NIGHT INTO SATE. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENHANCE TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 22N ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...HANDLED WELL BY THE GFS. LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN ATLC IS EXPECTED TO START TO PASS TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND RELATED SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT MAY REACH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OFFSHORE ZONE AMZ127...ABOUT 240 NM NE OF THE LEEWARDS...BY SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.