000 AGXX40 KNHC 081852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS VERY WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WEAK HIGH ACROSS THE NW...AND VERACRUZ COASTAL TROUGH PREVAILING. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF INTERACTING WITH TUTT ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION W OF 94W ATTM...HOWEVER TREND HAS BEEN DIMINISHING PAST FEW HOURS. VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW MAY HAVE FORMED ACROSS WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG SE END OF COASTAL TROUGH THERE...WHERE IT HAS INTERACTED WITH WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING SFC TROUGHING ALONG THE COAST THERE FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND VERY PRONOUNCED IN LLVLS THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...TUTT AND LLVL TROUGHING SHIFT W AND WELL INLAND ACROSS MEXICO AND ALLOWS FOR SE TO S LLVL FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS ALMOST ENTIRE W HALF OF BASIN...AND WILL THEN SET UP SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO TRANSLATE MORE W-NW OUT OF CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS S AND SW PORTIONS OF GULF THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK. NEXT WAVE CROSSING 80W ATTM FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW AND ENTER STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE MOVE ACROSS NW CARIB AND SE PORTIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED AND EMERGE OFF OF YUCATAN AND INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE THU MORNING. MODEST RIDGING BEHIND WAVE AND LLVL WIND SURGE WILL FOLLOW IT INTO CARIB FOR FRESHENING SE WIND FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS GENERALLY S OF 24N. LATEST RUN OF GFS NOW GOING BONKERS WITH THIS SCENARIO ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ENHANCED E TO SE FLOW ACROSS ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE 20 KT WITH PULSES TO 30 KT. ECMWF AND UKMET NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE...ALBEIT ECMWF HAS DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH TUTT LOW REFLECTION ACROSS BAHAMAS BY THIS TIME AND AFFECTS RIDGING INTO THE BASIN. AT THIS TIME PREFER UKMET SOLUTION INTO THE WEEKEND...SHOWING INCREASED WINDS SW PORTIONS...AND TYPICALLY DIURNAL TRENDING OF 15-20 KT SURGES MOVING OFF YUCATAN LATE WITH EVENING CONVECTIVE TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING 80W ATTM AND EXTENDS NE ACROSS ERN CUBA WHERE IT IS INTERACTING WITH TUTT LOW ACROSS BAHAMAS. CARIB LLVL JET HAS SHIFTED A BIT N AND E BEHIND WAVE PASSAGE...WITH RECENT SCAT PASSES SUGGESTING MAX WINDS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF VENEZUELA AND A-B-C ISLES. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST ESE-WNW FETCH TO DEVELOP WITH AND BEHIND WAVE AND STRETCH FROM SE CARIB TO NW PORTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WILL LIKELY RAISE SEAS IN NW CARIB TO 5-7 FT BY LATE THU OR FRI...AND 7-9 FT IN GULF OF HONDURAS. MY CURRENT GRIDS SEEM A BIT HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO BLEND IN MORE NWPS FOR NEXT PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE FROM RECENT FORECAST THINKING WITH WAVE REACHING 83W INTO STRAITS BY 12Z TUE...ALONG 87W BY 12Z WED AND THEN OUT OF BASIN WED NIGHT. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT WILL AID IN FRESHENING WIND FLOW FOR FETCH DESCRIBED ABOVE. GFS PULSES TO 30 KT OFFSHORE OF LAKE MARACAIBO NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND SHOULD KICK UP SEAS TO 11 POSSIBLY 12 FT FOLLOWING NOCTURNAL PEAK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO REACH TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AROUND 00Z THU AND THEN REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES THU MORNING. WAVE TO REALLY DAMPEN OUT AND ANY SIGNIFICANT PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN N OF THE BASIN AT 20 KT OR LESS...AND ONLY MODEST IMPLICATIONS EXPECTED FROM WAVE MOVING ACROSS E PORTIONS THU-FRI. STILL WATCHING WAVE OFF AFRICA TODAY BUT MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE LIFTING THIS SYSTEM N OF THE CARIB...DESPITE CURRENT LOW LAT LOCATION...BEFORE REACHING 55W AROUND MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING 80W ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB AND ERN CUBA...YIELDING SCT DEEP CNVTN INVOF LOW AND SE QUADRANT. LOW FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND FILL THROUGH THE WEEK AND THEN SINK S ACROSS CUBA AND INTO CARIB FRI- SAT. WEAK SFC RIDGE PREVAILS FROM NE OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHILE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STRUNG OUT ACROSS SE U.S. AND OFFSHORE OF CAROLINAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WERE DEPICTED THIS MORNING IN SCAT PASSES ACROSS THE S HALF OF BAHAMAS LIKELY EXTENDING TO 70W AND FUELING ACTIVE CONVECTION THERE. MORNING SEA STATE ANAL REVEALS HUGE AREA OF SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE TROPICAL SW AND CENTRAL ATLC...EXCEPT AROUND PERIPHERY OF RIDGE WHERE SEAS WERE A STAGGERING 3-4 FT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WAVE WILL REACH THE STRAITS BY TUE MORNING WITH SELY FLOW AROUND 15 KT THROUGH SRN CORRIDOR AND BAHAMAS BANKS TO FL KEYS. HOWEVER...RIDGING NEVER BUILDS IN SOLIDLY ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS DURING THE WEEK AS LLVL TROFFING DEVELOPS ACROSS BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC AND DIVERTS WIND FLOW. ECMWF HAS BEEN INDICATING A SFC LOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS LATE WED-THU AND COULD SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO TC OR SUB TC LATER IN WEEK AS IT SHIFTS GRADUALLY N AND NNE OUT OF THE AREA SUN-MON. WAVE OFF AFRICA STILL LOOKING BETTER WITH TIME AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A TRAJECTORY THAT COULD MOVE TOWARDS SE PORTIONS TUE BEFORE LIFTING OUT TOWARD THE N. ASSOCIATED ELY SWELL ACROSS THE AREA WATERS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT ANTICIPATED ATTM WITH THIS TRAJECTORY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.