000 AGXX40 KNHC 071855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND VERY WEAK PRES PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WEAK HIGH ACROSS THE NW...AND VERACRUZ COASTAL TROUGH PREVAILING. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIB AND APPROACHING YUCATAN ATTM WITH MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW BEHIND IT INCHING INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. TUTT LOW ACROSS W PORTIONS BECOMING ELONGATED NE TO SW AND AIDING IN INSTABILITY ACROSS SW GULF. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS GULF COAST STATES FORECAST TO MEANDER INLAND NEXT FEW DAYS AND DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO N GULF WATERS PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT DOES PUSH OFF MID ATLC STATES AND SE ATLC COAST. MAIN FEATURES DURING THE PERIOD REMAIN N PORTIONS OF SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING WNW ACROSS S PORTIONS. FIRST WAVE MOVING APPROACHING YUCATAN ATTM WILL MOVE ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE NEXT 48 HOURS AND INTERACT WITH WEAKENING TUTT ACROSS SW PORTIONS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER TONIGHT AND MON. HOWEVER TUTT TO SHIFT WWD INTO MEXICO BY LATE MON-TUE AND UPPER CONDITIONS TO STABILIZE. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH WED BEFORE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS NARROWLY ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO NE PART WED NIGHT BEHIND AEW CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB...FOR FRESHENING ESE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS S PART THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODELS CONSENSUS VERY MODEST PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AS WEAK W ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE OF BERMUDA SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED STRONG ESE TRADES TO 25 KT OFF OF NW VENEZUELA...S OF 14.5N...AND FRESH TO STRONG ENE FLOW S OF HISPANIOLA TO 16N AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL CARIB. PEAK SEAS LIKELY 8-9 FT S CENTRAL PORTIONS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AND INTO YUCATAN PENINSULA WED AFTERNOON WITH FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE VEERING ESE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN FOR AN ELONGATED FETCH...WITH PEAK WINDS AND SEAS EXTENDING FROM TRADITIONAL CARIB JET ZONE NW INTO W CENTRAL PORTIONS...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD 8-11 FT WITHIN THE FETCH BY WED...AND SEAS 8-9 FT REACHING INTO WATERS S OF CAYMANS BY LATE WED. PERTURBATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG ITCZ ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH WINDWARDS ATTM WITH SQUALLS YIELDING GUSTY WINDS 25-30 KT. NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND REACH TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS A SHARP TROUGH WED NIGHT. THE WAVE EXITING AFRICA LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE BEST AEW OF THIS SEASON AND GIVEN CLIMO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO DEVELOP IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE BUT EVENTUALLY MAY ENCOUNTER SWLY SHEAR AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS BY DAY 5-6. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TUTT LOW ACROSS BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WAVE RELATED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND SE BAHAMAS FOR SCATTERED CNVTN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SQUALLS EXPECTED THROUGH MON AS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW AND SCRAPES ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND SE HALF OF BAHAMAS. LLVL REFLECTION OF TUTT LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC BREAKING UP ATLC RIDGING AND ALLOWING ONLY A NARROW RIDGE TO EXTEND FROM NE OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF AREA...AND SEAS LESS THAN 5 FT. AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH GREATER ANTILLES NEXT 48-72 HRS...FRESHENING ESE TRADES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT ACROSS SE WATERS AND THEN INTO BAHAMA BANKS...PICKING UP SEAS 4-6 FT. S TO SW FLOW WILL ALSO FRESHEN NW WATERS TONIGHT AND MON AHEAD OF E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OFF E COAST ON TUE. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY SEASONABLE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ATLC RIDGE SHIFTING E AND BECOMING ANCHORED ACROSS NE ATLC AND ONLY MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS BUILDING INTO SE PORTIONS FOR THU-FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.