000 AGXX40 KNHC 061857 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 257 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS .WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NE PART TO COLLAPSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS YUCATAN SHIFTS WNW AND BRUSHES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS AND WEAK TROFFING ALONG N GULF COASTS MEANDERS. TUTT LOW ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INTERACT WITH WAVE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS YUCATAN AND ADJACENT BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH SUN. MODEST W ATLC RIDGE TO THEN BUILD WEAKLY SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND ACROSS N GULF LATE SUN THROUGH MID WEEK. NEXT TWO TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS CARIB ATTM TO MOVE W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AND W CARIB AND ACROSS STRAITS AND SE PORTIONS MON-TUE-WED FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND WEATHER. MODELS SHOWING LLVL WIND SURGE BEHIND SECOND WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CARIB AND INTO SE AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS LATE WED AND THU FOR INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...15-20 KT AND SEAS 4-7 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WEAK ATLC RIDGE YIELDING ONLY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TODAY WITH MAX SEAS TO 8 FT OFF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING AT 12Z. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW PEAK WINDS S OF 14N. MAIN FEATURES...AS IS TYPICAL...ARE TWO AEW'S MOVING W-NW ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS FIRST ACROSS WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTERACTING WITH TUTT LOW ALONG 70-72W OVER THE SW N ATLC...AND THE SECOND WAVE WITH ELONGATED MOISTURE AND VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT ATLC AND CARIB. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF MOISTURE AND WEATHER WITH BOTH WAVE TO AFFECT N PORTIONS OF THE BASIN AND GREATER ANTILLES NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH STRONG INTERPLAY WITH SECOND WAVE AND TUTT TO SHIFT MAJORITY OF CNVTN N OF THE BASIN AND INTO ATLC WATERS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PR BY LATE SUN NIGHT. STEERING FLOW BY THIS TIME VEERS DECIDEDLY SE ACROSS BASIN E OF 76W AND WILL ADVECT WEATHER ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND TOWARDS STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON-TUE-WED. LLVL FLOW TO ALSO VEER ESE TO SE ACROSS ALL BUT S CENTRAL PORTIONS AND SHIFT WIND MAX N OF COLOMBIA AND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS...ALLOWING FOR LONG FETCH TO STRETCH FROM OFFSHORE OF A-B-C ISLANDS TO NW PORTIONS BY WED... WITH SEAS BUILDING 7-10 THROUGHOUT THE FETCH AREA. MODERATE TRADES YIELDING SEAS LESS THAN 6 FT ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM...AND LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WITH NEXT 3 AEW'S TO CROSS THE ATLC. FIRST WAVE AND TROPICAL LOW ALONG 32W ATTM TILTED WITH HEIGHT BY MODELS...WITH LLVL CENTER OR WAVE AXIS LAGGING BY SEVERAL DEGREES BY MON...AND HAVE USED A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR PROGS THROUGH 72 HRS. LOW EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP TO WAVE BY 36 HRS. NEXT 2 WAVES HOWEVER...HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL...AND CLIMO ON THEIR SIDE...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH GUIDANCE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID OCEANIC TROF MAY LIKELY DRAW ONE OR BOTH INTO CENTRAL ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WINDWARD PASSAGE INTERACTING WITH TUTT LOW JUST NE OF BAHAMAS FOR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER E OF 70W ATTM. WAVE TO CONTINUE W-NW AND ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND BAHAMA BANKS NEXT 48 HOURS FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER AND MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...ALTHOUGH TRADES OFF N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND N OF WINDWARD PASSAGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 20 KT AND 4-6 FT. WEAK RIDGE FROM W CENTRAL ATLC SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MEANDER NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY NWD TO ALONG 29N WED NIGHT-THU...WITH ONLY MODERATE TRADES TO THE S OF RIDGE. WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIB AND LESSER ANTILLES TODAY TO INTERACT STRONGLY WITH TUTT TO THE N OF NE CARIB...AND PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER SHIFTING NNW OUT OF CARIB AND INTO SE WATERS SUN EVENING THROUGH WED. THIS TO FRACTURE N PORTION OF WAVE BY 48 HRS AND REDUCE MOISTURE AND ENERGY PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS BAHAMA BANKS AND INTO STRAITS AND S FLORIDA LATE TUE THROUGH THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.