000 AGXX40 KNHC 051822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 222 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS WELL AS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE GULF REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 80W WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE SAT...AND PASS THROUGH THE SW GULF... INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN AND MON. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE. AN E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 28N TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH TUE NIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE NW WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON SUN. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO THE N AND NE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN. THE FIRST ONE IS ALONG 80W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY S OF 16N. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE W THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL LATE TODAY AND SAT...AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND SUN. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 50W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON TONIGHT AND SAT...PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE PERIODS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES. SEAS WILL REACH TO 9 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THESE PERIODS OF ENHANCE TRADE WIND FLOW. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 14N23W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR 50W TUE MORNING...AND BE NEAR 55W/56W WED MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 70W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT REACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SAT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 50W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N ON SAT AND SUN. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE PASSAGES. A RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAINTAINING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 22N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.