000 AGXX40 KNHC 041803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 203 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS MAINLY FROM 20N TO 24N W OF 94W WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT BASED ON ALTIMETER PASS. A SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATER TODAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES BY SUN AND STALL...WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF. THIS IN TURN ALLOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF YUCATAN EACH EVENING DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF SUN AND MON. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVES. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOTED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ONE IS LOCATED ALONG 86W AND WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. THE SECOND IS BETWEEN HAITI AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...THEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN...AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS 55W LATE FRI... ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE SAT...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE PERIODS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES. SEAS WILL REACH 8 TO 10 FT IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THESE PERIODS OF ENHANCE TRADE WIND FLOW. LOOKING AHEAD...A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AFRICA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 55W TUE NIGHT INTO WED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, IF ANY, IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS TODAY AND FRI. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N THROUGH SAT. A RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH WATERS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAINTAINING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 22N. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.