000 AGXX40 KNHC 040638 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SE THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF IS RESULTING IN PERSISTENT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS FROM NW YUCATAN THROUGH THE W CENTRAL GULF WITH SEAS AVERAGING AROUND 5 TO 7 FT. RELATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF TAMPICO MEXICO. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE E FLOW PERSISTS. FARTHER EAST...THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENTERING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI. GLOBAL MODELS IN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND STALL....WEAKENING THE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF. THIS IN TURN ALLOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW GULF LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW 20 KT OFF NW YUCATAN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...ENHANCING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CUBA AND OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WILL EXIT WEST THROUGH LATE TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND NE COLOMBIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SAT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT...AND THROUGH THE EARLY NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO HANDLE STRONGER IMPACTS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS IN BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES. SEAS WILL REACH 8 TO 10 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THESE PERIODS OF ENHANCE TRADE WIND FLOW. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO LOOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE/LOW PRES AREA CURRENTLY MOVING OFF AFRICA...EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W BY LATE TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG ROUGHLY 32N...MAINTAINING GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 22N. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WEAK FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY AND STALL ON SUNDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF 22N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.