000 AGXX40 KNHC 311746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 146 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ALONG AND EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17.5N 87.5W THIS MORNING. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM TO LAND WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT WHILE IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS LOW PRES AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY MONDAY...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FORECAST TRACK. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS SETTING UP BY LATE MON FROM THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NE MEXICO... BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH CMAN OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS TO AT LEAST 20 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS E OF 87W. THESE FRESH WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND RIDGING EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE GULF...BUT MAY BE APPROACHING 7 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS...WHERE FRESH E TO SE WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER THE AREA S OF 21N W OF 83W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 84W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH ON MON...BUT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY MON EVENING. BUOY 42056 LOCATED NEAR 20N85W IS OCCASIONALLY REPORTING 25 KT FROM THE SE WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. A WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE OVER IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W/65W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH EARLY WED...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL PASS WEST OF 55W TONIGHT...APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO TUE...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 7-8 FT ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...EXCEPT FOR STRONGER WINDS PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W IS REPORTING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND OFF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N71W CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY NE OF THE SE BAHAMAS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS MON AND MON NIGHT... THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND THE NW BAHAMAS WED BEFORE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA WED NIGHT INTO THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.