000 AGXX40 KNHC 261751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 151 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS HEAVY GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF FROM THE FL STRAITS NW TO THE NE TX COAST. THE GRADIENT SUPPORTED NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE TROUGH AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. ONE MORE BLAST OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE 10-15 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED NE OF THE TROUGH THU AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY COMPLETELY. MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SW OF THE TROUGH. GENERALLY SE-S 10-15 KT FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON FRI INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SW HALF ON SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESUME TILL SUN EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THE LATE SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY MON MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY BY MON AFTERNOON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS HEAVY GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO INTERRUPT THE TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED EXTENDING SW FROM CRISTOBAL ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THIS RESULTS IN LIGHT 5-10 KT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS AND SE-S FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS W OF 75W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH SE 10-15 KT FLOW RETURNING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AFTER FRI NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SUN EVENING. TO THE E OF 75W E-SE WINDS ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH SMALL PATCHES OF 20-25 KT OFF THE S AMERICAN COAST AT THE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BORDER. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU AND THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTION ON FRI AND SAT. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT NE-E-SE 15- 20 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE WAVE. A SECOND WAVE ALONG 48W THIS MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON WED NIGHT AND THU...THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 7-8 FT N OF 13N WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE...AND THIS ENHANCEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BUT SHIFT A FURTHER N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CLOSING OFF ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AS IT ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. HRCN CRISTOBAL OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION IS THE MAIN FOCUS WITH ALTIMETER DATA REPORTING SEAS HEIGHTS NEAR 25 FT LAST NIGHT. ALL ASSOCIATED EFFECTS WILL LIFT N OF 31N AROUND SUNRISE ON THU. A RIDGE WILL BUILD W ALONG 26N IN THE WAKE OF THE HURRICANE ON THU WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR 28N74W ON THU NIGHT...AND MAINTAINING A RIDGE NW TO BEYOND 31N75W AND A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 26N58W. THE HIGH WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA ON SAT WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM 31N75W TO NE FL ON SUN. BY THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS S OF 23N WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.