000 AGXX40 KNHC 260820 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 420 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 CORRECTED FOR SEAS IN THE SW N ATLC SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN UNUSUALLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT FOR LATE AUGUST MOVED THROUGH THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS LOST ITS THERMAL AND DEW POINT GRADIENT. THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 0218 UTC AND 0310 UTC SHOWED 25 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NE HALF OF THE NE GULF ZONE GMZ015. BUOY 42O36 REACHED 25 KT AND SEAS TO 7 FT OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS. THE ECMWF IS A WEAK OUTLIER HERE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE NAVGEM AND UKMET AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE OBSERVATIONS. GIVEN THAT THE GEFS SHOW AS HIGH AS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONE THIS MORNING...WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF...BUT WILL NEED TO BEEF THINGS UP INITIALLY AND INTO THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST BASED ON ITS WEAK INITIALIZATION AND GENERAL POOR HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR THE MWW3 THE REMAINING TROUGH WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA COMES EARLY SAT MORNING OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE ENHANCES THE NORMAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH THAT PUSHES OFF THE PENINSULA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE MWW3 WHICH WAS FAVORED OVER THE LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS OF THE NWPS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE NORMALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N HAS RETREATED E DUE TO CRISTOBAL. TRADES TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TONIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND CRISTOBAL LIFTS N OF THE BAHAMAS ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS S. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE THEN NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING OFF THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA. EVEN THEN...THE PERIOD OF TRADES TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT. THE GFS IS PREFERRED WITH THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL AND THE PATTERN TO THE N. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WILL ADJUST THE GRIDS TO THE GFS HERE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT WITH THE NAVGEM AND CMC WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FASTER. THE EC ENS MEAN SHOWS A NOD TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED GFS CAMP. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS ON THU. FAVORED A SLIGHTLY WEAKER/FASTER VERSION OF THE GFS AND MWW3 HERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL. THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOO WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT PLOWED INTO THE SW N ATLC YESTERDAY. THE WIND FIELD AROUND CRISTOBAL IS SIZABLE...WITH THE STRONGER GFS SLIGHTLY BETTER INITIALIZED THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY S OF THE CENTER. THE GFS IS MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. GIVEN THE TREND FOR A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION AND THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING PICKING UP THE SYSTEM...WILL USE THE GFS AND MWW3 TO ADJUST THE GRIDS OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THE 06Z NWPS APPEARS TOO EXPANSIVE WITH THE 12 FT SEAS N OF CRISTOBAL AND TOO SMALL WITH THE SEAS TO THE S COMPARED TO THE RECENT ALTIKA AND CRYOSAT PASSES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.