000 AGXX40 KNHC 251755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS OVER THE NE GULF SURGED TO NEAR 25 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND SURGE OF NE WINDS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...REACHING MINIMAL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 25 KT BRIEFLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z BEFORE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BUT LINGERING TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE WASHING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FIRST PART OF FORECAST PERIOD LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...LATER IN PERIOD BLEND GFS/UKMET WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW. TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT TYPICALLY EXTENDS OVER THE SW N ATLC N OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS KEEPING A DISRUPTION TO TRADEWINDS FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN IS AROUND A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDUCED WIND FIELD AROUND CRISTOBAL. AS CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND FURTHER FROM THE AREA...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS BRINGING A RETURN OF FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW BY MIDWEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THE FORMATION OF A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF 40W. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE DEVELOPING A RATHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING A LOW. HAVE BLENDED THE GFS/UKMET INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD AS THE MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION CALL BETWEEN NHC AND WPC FAVORS THESE SOLUTIONS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF/GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD. A WELL PLACED ASCAT PASS INDICATES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...BRINGING THE SYSTEM N OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF CRISTOBAL AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.