000
AGXX40 KNHC 241806
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE PREVAIL. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WILL SHIFT INTO THE SE WATERS
MIDWEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL EXTENDS ACROSS E
CUBA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. CRISTOBAL HAS DISRUPTED
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY PREVAILS N OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...TRADES HAVE BEEN DISRUPTED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. THE CURRENT TRACK OF CRISTOBAL BRINGS THE SYSTEM NNW
THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN SHIFTING TO A NNE TRACK MOVING N OF THE SW
N ATLC WATERS LATE WED. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BRING A RETURN OF FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BY MIDWEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE TRADES BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA. AS
THE TRADE WINDS FRESHEN MIDWEEK...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL...THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MIDWEEK. THIS IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS MIDWEEK. 
       
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
TRACK OF CRISTOBAL WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE
CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE THE FASTEST WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND ECMWF AND GFS
WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS OUTSIDE OF
CRISTOBAL.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON NIGHT.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.