000
AGXX40 KNHC 240725
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
20-25 KT AND 8 FT FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT W THROUGH MON NIGHT. TROUGHING EXTENDING
FROM WHAT IS NOW T.D. FOUR OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF MON AND LEAVE A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL STRETCH FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING. AS EXPLAINED IN THE ATLC SECTION BELOW...THE ECMWF IS
THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH T.D. FOUR. THE ECMWF WILL BE USED TO
ADJUST THE GRIDS.
   
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE NORMALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N HAS RETREATED E
DUE TO T.D. FOUR. TRADES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA UNTIL TUE NIGHT AS FOUR LIFTS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS S. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THE STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL WATERS IN THE
LATE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD THU NIGHT. WHILE THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE TRACK OF
T.D. FOUR AND THE PATTERN TO THE N...THE GFS GENERALLY DOES A
BETTER JOB WITH THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. THE GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DESPITE
BEING WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE RIDGING TO THE N. WILL ADJUST
THE GRIDS TO THE GFS HERE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE NIGHT AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
EARLY THU. THE ECMWF WAS USED IN THE ATLC. 
       
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
EC WAVE/NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF T.D.
FOUR. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH
THE GFS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. WILL USE
THE 00Z ECMWF TO ADJUST THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE EXPECTED AREA
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.


$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT. 

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.