000
AGXX40 KNHC 231817
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
217 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. 
   
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING N OF HISPANIOLA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
DISRUPTED AS A RESULT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SW N
ATLC WATERS. THIS IS KEEPING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAK WITH WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE SE N ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS..THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISRUPTED. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT N AND FURTHER
FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS BRINGING
A SLIGHT INCREASE T0 THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HELP
FRESHEN WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN MIDWEEK WITH SEAS REACHING NEAR 8
FT.
       
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING JUST N OF HISPANIOLA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AS
THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS...AS WELL
AS EACH SUCCESSIVE FORECAST RUN OF EACH MODEL. THE LATEST
FORECAST RUN HAS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF LIFT THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHIFT THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK. THE LATEST UKMET BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM MUCH
CLOSER TO FLORIDA BEFORE RECURVING NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA BRINGING THE SYSTEM N OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST NHC/WPC COORDINATION FAVORS A TRACK MORE SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF AND THIS MODEL HAS BEEN FAVORED TO BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.