000 AGXX40 KNHC 181843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE NW GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE HIGH WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOSING IDENTITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO WSW AT 15 KT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SE-S 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL WINDS OVER THE W-CENTRAL AND NW WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT SLY RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT. S OF 23N...EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD... EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ON WED EVENING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING W ALONG 22N LATE WED NIGHT...BUT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY SUNRISE. THIS EVENING EVENT WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EACH MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND WITH HEAVIER WEIGHT TOWARDS THE NWPS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THAT PORTION OF THE SEAS TONIGHT...AND W OF THE AREA EARLY TUE. A SECOND AND BROADER TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 43W/44W FROM 11N TO 19N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON TUE NIGHT AND WED...THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THU...AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SAT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS DURING FRI...AND MOVE ACROSS THOSE WATERS INTO SAT. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE MAXIMUM AFFECTED AREA OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MOSTLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE INTENSITY DURING WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG 27N-28N THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTING E AND W ALONG THE RIDGE...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 68W-55W. A WEAK TROUGH WILL STALL FROM 31N78W TO 28N80W ON TUE WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST SW TO WSW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH FRI. EASTERLY TRADES FROM THE RIDGE AXIS TO ALONG 23N ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT. TO THE S OF 23N MODERATE 10-15 KT TRADES EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.