000 AGXX40 KNHC 171856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 256 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. ----------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST WILL SHIFT A LITTLE N TODAY TO A PSN FROM CHARLOTTE HARBOR FL TO THE NE TX COAST. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MEANDER ALONG THIS PSN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOSING IDENTITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE N- CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING TO SW 15 KT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS TODAY THROUGH TUE. EXPECT SE-S 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE W-CENTRAL AND NW WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH MAXIMUMS OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY THE E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ACROSS THE WATERS GENERALLY FROM 23-26N TO THE W OF 89W. S OF 23N...EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TUE...THEN INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ON WED EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EACH MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE AND WED. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 40W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT...PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON WED...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT THE AFFECTED AREA WILL SHRINK TODAY...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON MON THROUGH THU. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG ON TUE AND WED EVENINGS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM E TO W ALONG 27N-28N THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTING E AND W ALONG THE RIDGE...MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 67W-55W. A WEAK TROUGH WILL STALL FROM 31N78W TO 28N80W ON TUE WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST SW-W 10 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE EXPECTING SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN MOSTLY SW 5-10 KT FLOW N OF THE RIDGE ON THU. EASTERLY TRADES FROM THE RIDGE AXIS TO ALONG 23N ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT. TO THE S OF 23N MODERATE 10-15 KT TRADES EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...BUT STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER/NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.