000
AGXX40 KNHC 160527
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
127 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST WILL SHIFT N TO 
A PSN FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE NE TX COAST ON SUN. THE RIDGE WILL 
THEN MEANDER ALONG THIS PSN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
PERIOD...WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING 
OVER THE FL PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE 
EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOSING IDENTITY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 
EXPECTED OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. EXPECT SE-S 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE W-CENTRAL AND NW 
WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH MAXIMUMS DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE UPCOMING 
WEEKEND WITH E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SW 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS GENERALLY FROM 23-26N W 
OF 89W. 

S OF 23N...EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS 
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF 
CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EACH MORNING...AND 
LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. 
   
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE:  LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.  

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND 
TONIGHT...REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...AND 
PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING TUE NIGHT AND WED. 
FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
BUT THE AFFECTED AREA WILL SHRINK TODAY THROUGH SUN...THEN 
INCREASE AGAIN ON MON THROUGH WED.  
 
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. 

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 25N55W TO 27N80W WITH A HIGH PRES 
CENTER SHIFTING E AND W ALONG THE RIDGE...MAINLY ACROSS THE 
WATERS BETWEEN 65W-55W. SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF THE 
RIDGE THROUGH MON...EXCEPT FOR SMALL PATCHES OF 15-20 KT ACROSS 
THE WATERS E OF 70W TODAY. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN 
ON TUE WITH SW-W FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N 
OF 29N. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF 
HISPANIOLA AND ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE IT 
WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EACH EVENING THROUGH SUN 
EVENING. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS 
RETURNING ALONG N COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON WED EVENING.  

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.