000 AGXX40 KNHC 151829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 229 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AND E-W RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STEERING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A STRONG BREEZE COULD MOVE W OFF THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN EVENING AND SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT. THERE ARE FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ONCE MORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SHRINK BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND AGAIN BEHIND THE WAVE MON MORNING THROUGH TUE. THE NWPS WAS 1-3 FT TOO HIGH WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AROUND 11-12Z THIS MORNING AS WELL AS WITH SEAS NEAR BUOY 42057. THE MWW3 WAS USED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DISCREPANCY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE EVENINGS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AS THE WAVE APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WILL RETURN AGAIN BY TUE EVENING. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. ITS STRONGER FORECAST GENERALLY FARES WELL. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE WELL INITIALIZED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM 25N TODAY TO NEAR 27N OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EACH EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS N OF THE AREA WILL OCCASIONALLYINCREASE WINDS TO A FRESH SW BREEZE OVER N WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ALLOW WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGHING AND THE HANDLING OF IT BY THE MODELS. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.