000 AGXX40 KNHC 150606 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FL AREA TO THE TX COASTAL BEND...WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOSING IDENTITY. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E TO W FROM THE FL PANHANDLE ACROSS THE MS...LA AND NE TX COASTAL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH FRI BEFORE BEING PUSHED FURTHER INLAND AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE N- CENTRAL AND NE WATERS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ANTICYCLONICALLY SW-W AT 5-10 KT TONIGHT. EXPECT SE-S 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE W-CENTRAL AND NW WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 23- 26N W OF 88W. S OF 23N...THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH APPEARS TO BE BUILDING W...SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT RW/ISOL TS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EACH MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT INTO SAT AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SAT...REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...AND PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING TUE NIGHT AND WED. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW-MED CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 25N65W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO EXTREME SE FL. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N AND BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 27N THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 32N TO THE W OF BERMUDA. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A LITTLE S INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W 10 KT WIND SHIFT. SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 25N E OF THE TROUGH TODAY...BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD W TO ALONG 78W TONIGHT...AND TO ALONG 80W ON SAT NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ON TUE WITH SW-W FLOW INCREASING TO 15-2 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EACH EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.