000 AGXX40 KNHC 141836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 236 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS A WEAK RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES THROUGH THE STRAITS TODAY AND INTO W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24.5N94W PER LATEST ASCAT PASS. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS WITH CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY JUST TO ITS S ALSO STILL LINGERING AND ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY AS ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROMOTE LIFT ACROSS THE N AND NE GULF. ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AND OFFSHORE OF E COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WILL KICK OUT LOW AND BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY OFF THE MID ATLC COAST...AND ALLOW ATLC HIGH TO SHIFT WWD AND SETTLE ACROSS SW N ATLC BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO BY LATE SUN. ASSOCIATED RIDGING INTO GULF WILL BROADEN BY SAT AND YIELD MODERATE SE TO S RETURN FLOW ACROSS W PORTIONS...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND NW COAST OF YUCATAN EACH AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC TODAY EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS MON EVENING AND ACROSS YUCATAN AND S GULF MON NIGHT-TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS MOVING INLAND ACROSS YUCATAN ATTM. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH N PORTION OF WAVE SHIFTING NW AND ACROSS CUBA...STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH DRY AIR AND MODEST SAL PUNCHING WWD IN BEHIND WAVE ACROSS MOST OF REMAINDER OF BASIN TO THE E. ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT AT 12Z OFF COLOMBIA...WHICH HAS SINCE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY. TRADES BACKING TO NE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC ATTM IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 50-51W. TRADES WILL PULSE AGAIN TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT TO 30 KT AND 12 FT OFF OF COLOMBIA...AS RIDGE REMAINS GENERALLY IN TACT ACROSS THE ATLC...AND TROPICAL WAVE REACHING TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI MORNING AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FRI NIGHT. WINDS ACROSS NRN PERIPHERY OF WAVE EXPECTED AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 6-7 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED 8 FT. HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WILL WEAKEN GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN AS IT MOVES ACROSS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND ATLC HIGH SHIFTS WWD TO N OF PUERTO RICO. GFS SHOWS SRN CARIB JET RETURNING TO A 30 KT NOCTURNAL MAX OFF COLOMBIA BY TUE NIGHT AS WAVE MOVES INTO GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 45W/46W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WWD AND REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY ON FRI...THEN CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY SAT. NE WINDS ARE ALREADY NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. A MODEST AREA OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N PORTIONS OF THIS WAVE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA AND EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N61W...YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. TUTT LOW SHIFTING WWD N OF PUERTO RICO IS INDUCING A LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NW OF IT WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION...WHILE A SECOND CONVERGENCE LINE IS ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS TO THE S OF FRONTAL ZONE DRAGGING N OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT E AND DRAG ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NE AND OUT OF AREA. GFS FORECASTING DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF MODERATE TRADES ALONG N COASTS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THROUGH NEXT FEW DAYS AS ATLC TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. WAVE TO SHIFT WWD INTO SE PORTIONS SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING THEN THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND BAHAMA BANKS AND INTO STRAITS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. WAVE WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS S PORTIONS THROUGH MON NIGHT... WAVE DYNAMICS SHIFTING WNW ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS AND CREATING UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG ITS TREK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.