000 AGXX40 KNHC 140722 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 322 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC DOMINATES THE SE GULF WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH THE REMNANTS LIFTING N OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MEANDERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK HIGH PRES CELL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINLY PRODUCE A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A LOW PRES SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT INCREASING SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS MAINLY N OF 22N W OF 94W DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. EXPECT SEAS OF 3-5 FT WITH THESE INCREASING WINDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TODAY AND LIKELY MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE TODAY. A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 45W/46W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WWD AND REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY ON FRI...THEN CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY SAT. NE WINDS ARE ALREADY NOTED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. A MODEST AREA OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE N PORTIONS OF THIS WAVE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PER THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. BUOY 42058 LOCATED NEAR 15N75W IS REPORTING SEAS TO 8 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 0000 AND 1200 UTC WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENINGS THROUGH SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA AND EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N59W. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE AREA OF SW WINDS OF 15-25 KT THAT WAS AFFECTING THE N WATERS ON WED IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING ENE AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF AREA EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING W TO SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF N PORTIONS N OF 28N THROUGH FRI. THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC IS FORECAST TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS SAT THROUGH MON. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH EXPOSED SEAS OF 5-8 FT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.