000 AGXX40 KNHC 131844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WEAK NARROW RIDGE CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH STRAITS AND ACROSS SE GULF ALONG 24N TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SE INTO THE NRN COASTAL WATERS WITH CONVERGENCE LINE/TROUGH JUST 1-2 DEGREES TO THE S OF FRONT. UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN GULF CREATING LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW ATTM...WHILE ACTIVE CNVTN ALSO OCCURRING ALONG BOUNDARIES ACROSS N COASTAL WATERS IN GENERAL MILD SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF E COAST UPPER TROUGH. FRONT AND TROUGH NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING NEXT 48 HOURS AS THEY MEANDER ACROSS N PORTIONS...THEN WILL LIFT NWD AND INLAND BY 72 HRS AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS MODESTLY W INTO THE REGION. RESULTANT RETURN FLOW ACROSS W PORTIONS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH DIURNAL SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT YIELDING 15-20 KT ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...AND ALONG NW COAST OF YUCATAN. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHAT IS TROPICAL WAVE IN BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY...AND WHAT IS REMNANT OF YUCATAN TROUGH FROM OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WWD...BUT ASSOCIATED WEAK LLVL TROFFING TO LINGER ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEXT FEW DAYS IN WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. NEXT WAVE ACROSS W CARIB ATTM TO SHIFT WNW ACROSS YUCATAN AND INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE THU AFTERNOON-EVENING AND LIKELY INTO MEXICO FRI NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS 80W IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF HONDURAS AND INTO YUCATAN NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEAK AND NARROW ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO SE GULF YIELDING MODEST AREA OF STRONG TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS WITH SEAS 7-8 FT AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED AREA TO 9 FT ATTM. WINDS EXPECTED TO FRESHEN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS TONIGHT BEHIND WWD SHIFTING TROPICAL WAVE AND REACH 30 KT NOCTURNAL MAX AND 12 FT SEAS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. THIS PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI WHEN NEXT LARGE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND ENTERS E CARIB EARLY SAT. WINDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BACK IN LLVLS ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. A MODEST AREA OF 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THIS WAVE N OF 16N AS IT SHIFT WWD THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS FRI AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASE IN ENE WIND SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT SHIFTING WWD ACROSS N PORTIONS AND INTO NE CARIB PASSAGES FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WAVE WILL THEN SHIFT MORE W-NW ACROSS THE E CARIB SAT AND CENTRAL CARIB SUN AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN PRES GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND FORCING WIND FIELD SLIGHTLY WWD ACROSS CARIB AS WAVE APPROACHES...AND EWD SUN AS WAVE MOVES ACROSS 75-76W. WEAK ATLC RIDGE FORCAST TO BECOME CENTERED ACROSS SW N ATLC BY THAT TIME ALONG 26.5N. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N56W THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA...YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AREA OF SW WINDS 15-25 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING ENE AND EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF AREA TONIGHT LEAVING W TO SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF N PORTIONS N OF 28N THROUGH FRI. LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ATTM EXPECTED TO REACH LESSER ANTILLES LATE FRI NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SE PORTIONS SAT THROUGH SAT EVENING...AND THEN THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT-SUN...THEN THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SUN THROUGH MON. GRADIENT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH EXPOSED SEAS 5-8 FT. WAVE DYNAMICS TO MOVE ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS AS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH UPPER ENVIRONMENT MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THUS EXPECT PULSING CONVECTION AND ENHANCED DIURNAL CNVTN ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES DURING WAVE PASSAGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.