000 AGXX40 KNHC 121830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEST ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS NARROW AXIS THROUGH S FLORIDA ALONG 26N AND INTO SE GULF TODAY. CONVERGENCE LINE/TROUGH PREVAILS N OF RIDGE NEAR 27N80W NE INTO BIG BEND REGION...WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS GULF COAST STATES MOVING SLOWLY SE. SWLY FLOW AROUND 15 KT OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE PORTIONS HAD KICKED UP SEAS 3-4 FT AND NOT WELL DEPICTED BY MODELS. CONVERGENCE LINE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WASH OUT TONIGHT AS FRONT SINKS S TO GULF COAST AND THEN INTO NRN GULF COASTAL WATERS WED MORNING WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH THU THEN REMNANTS LIFT N AND INLAND. RIDGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN INTACT THROUGH FRI...THEN DEEP LAYERED LOW MOVES ACROSS ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS W PORTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY W-NW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN INLAND ACROSS MEXICO. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70-71W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU THEN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 35W. GLOBAL MODELS HAD SHOWN SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THIS WAVE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...HOWEVER SAL ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE VORTEX AND CONVECTION IS LIMITED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THUS A WELL DEFINED WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WWD AND REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY 72 HRS...THEN CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY SAT. BEST MOISTURE AND ENERGY LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS NE CARIB ISLANDS AND WATERS WITH THIS WAVE SAT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WERE NOTED THIS MORNING PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 80W WITH MAX SEAS TO 8 FT OF OF COLOMBIA. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVES ACROSS THE CARIB JET ZONE...THEN TIGHTEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES RETURNING TONIGHT...INCREASING EACH EVENING OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT AFFECTING MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU AND FRI....AS WINDS INCREASE TO 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1028 MB HIGH OVER NE ATLC...SW INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS...THEN BECOMES NARROW RIDGE W-SW ACROSS N BAHAMAS AND S FL ALONG 26N. THIS PRODUCING VERY MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS AND E-SE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS SE WATERS AND WELL OFFSHORE OF NE CARIB...WHILE SE TRADES AROUND 15 KT PREVAIL FROM N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS. N OF THE RIDGE...SWLY FLOW 15-20 KT PREVAILS ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND S OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDULATING FROM THE ERN SEABOARD E-NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. MODELS FORCASTING LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT TO DEEPEN OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WED-THU AND ENHANCE GRADIENT TO ITS S...YIELDING SW WINDS 20 KT AND LOCALLY 20-25 KT N OF 29.5N STARTING THIS AFTERNOON EVENING. SEAS MAY NOT REACH 8 FT S OF 31N AS THIS SW FETCH SHIFTS GRADUALLY NE AND E THU THROUGH FRI AND OUT OF AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WWD DURING THAT TIME AND TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB...AND ACROSS SE WATERS AND INTO SE BAHAMAS AS WELL. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WITH TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVAL IN E CARIB WITH WAVE ACTING TO PRODUCE WIND SURGE THROUGH S AND SE ZONES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. TRADES 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT TO ACCOMPANY THIS WIND SURGE THROUGH THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.