000 AGXX40 KNHC 120725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF TEXAS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS RIDGE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N...EXCEPT FOR SW 10-15 KT FLOW OVER THE FAR NE WATERS TODAY AND TUE...AND 10-15 KT SE-S RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON THU EVENING OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL REACH THE NORTH GULF STATES. SOME OF THEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR COASTAL WATERS... ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A SW-W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT. S OF 23N...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY GENERATING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND WED AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 33W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES...ANALYZED 1012 MB...IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HOURS. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A LOW CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL HAS THE LOW PRES WEAKENING AND OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY ON FRI AND THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY ON SAT. FOR NOW EXPECT A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT MOVING WESTWARD OR WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES RETURNING TONIGHT...INCREASING EACH EVENING OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT AFFECTING MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU AND FRI. ON THESE DAYS...EXPECT WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE...ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 35N31W...WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA W OF 65W BETWEEN 25- 27N THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK HIGH PRES CELL IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS NEAR 26N57W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT. S OF THE RIDGE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ARE OBSERVED WITH AN AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS ZONE AMZ123 THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU AND FRI EVENINGS. SW FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT EARLY TODAY THEN TO 20-25 KT ALONG 30N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PERSIST N OF THE RIDGE ON WED DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING E OF 65W ON FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.