000 AGXX40 KNHC 111713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 113 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE GULF...MAINLY FROM THE SW FL AREA TO THE TX COASTAL BEND...THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOSING IDENTITY. A WEAK COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A SW-W-NW 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT...WILL MOVE SE OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND FAR NW WATERS ON TUE NIGHT AND STALL EARLY WED...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BACK N OF THE AREA ON THU NIGHT AS THE RIDGE TO THE S REBUILDS FURTHER N. THIS RIDGE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N...EXCEPT FOR SW 10-15 KT FLOW OVER THE FAR NE WATERS TODAY AND TUE...AND 10-15 KT SE-S RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ON THU EVENING OVER THE FAR SW AND WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS W-GULF RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG NE MEXICO SE TX ON FRI AND SAT NIGHTS. S OF 23N...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW GULF ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION S OF 24N W OF 92W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE W THROUGH THE SW GULF WATERS ON TUE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 10-15 KT NE WINDS...BECOMING 15-20 KT ON THU EVENING...ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EACH MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS STILL ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WILL BE CONTINUED INTO THIS EVENINGS WEATHER GRIDS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AREA ON TUE AND WED...AND MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ON THU AND FRI. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ENHANCED S OF 15N WITHIN 660 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS...AND WILL BE CONTINUED IN TONIGHT'S WEATHER GRIDS. LOW PRES 1011 MB HAS FORMED ALONG AN EASTERLY WAVE NEAR 12N26W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W REACHING NEAR 15N55W ON FRI NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND NHC NOW EXPECT THE LOW WEAKENING TO AN OPEN TROUGH AFTER THU NIGHT AND ACCELERATING NW PASSING TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARDS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH EASTERLY TRADES RETURNING ON TUE NIGHT...INCREASING EACH EVENING OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ON THU NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW-MED CONFIDENCE. A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM NEAR 32N60W TO 32N80W. LOW PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SC COAST TONIGHT AND QUICKLY TURN NE...BUT DRAG A TROUGH OFF THE SE CONUS NEAR 30N78W LATE WED NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E TO PSN FROM 31N72W TO 30N80W AT SUNRISE FRI...THEN LIFT N BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 31N67W TO 31N77W ON SAT AND SUN. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA W OF 65W BETWEEN 25- 27N THROUGH THE PERIOD EXTENDING W FROM AN INTERMITTENT SURFACE HIGH NEAR 25N62W. SW 10-15 KT FLOW IS EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT SUPPORTING 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WED... EXCEPT BRIEFLY INCREASING TO SW 20-25 KT ALONG 31N BETWEEN 73-78W DURING MIDDAY TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING ON WED NIGHT WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING E OF 65W ON FRI AND REPLACED BY SW 5-10 KT CONDITIONS. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT EACH EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.