000 AGXX40 KNHC 110721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 321 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF TEXAS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 1-2 FT. E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SW AND WESTERN GULF AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL REACH THE NORTH GULF STATES. ONE OF THEM WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUE. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON FRI NIGHT DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE AND MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU ENTERING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE THU. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THESE TROPICAL WAVES. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR E ATLC. A 1012 MB LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N23W. GUIDANCE FAVORS TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A MEDIUM CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. FOR NOW EXPECT A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WATERS ON FRI...REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS FRI NIGHT AND PASSING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY ON SAT. IN THE GRIDS...THE POSITIONS OF THE LOW PRES ARE BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING ON WED. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. BUOY 42058 LOCATED NEAR 15N75W IS REPORTING SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME ON MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AGAIN ON WED WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT AFFECTING MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU AND FRI. ON THESE DAYS...EXPECT WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 1028 HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 34N35W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA W OF 65W BETWEEN 25-27N THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG AND N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT. S OF THE RIDGE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ARE OBSERVED WITH AN AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS ZONE AMZ123 TUE EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU AND FRI EVENINGS. SWLY FLOW IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WILL DOMINATE THE N WATERS MAINLY W OF 70W TODAY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MON NIGHT WITH 20-25 KT EXPECTED N OF 30N BETWEEN 73W-78W ON TUE AS A LOW PRES DEVELOPS N OF AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME SUPPORTING SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT N OF THE RIDGE LATE WED... GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT ON THU NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.