000 AGXX40 KNHC 101712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 112 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE GULF...MAINLY FROM THE SW FL AREA TO THE TX COASTAL BEND...THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON INTO EACH EVENING. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE INTERIOR N GULF COAST NEXT WEEK WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUE. SOME GUIDANCE THEN STALLS THE TROUGH OVER THE LA COASTAL WATERS WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE QUICKLY DISSIPATES IT. IN ANY EVENT THE WEAK FRONT OR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY THE SLIGHTEST SW TO W WIND SHIFT. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN MAINTAINING 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N...EXCEPT FOR 10-15 KT SE-S RETURN FLOW THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU EVENING OVER THE FAR SW AND WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT 15-20 KT RETURN FLOW ALONG NE MEXICO SE TX ON FRI NIGHT. S OF 23N...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY AN TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING NEAR 24N91W WHERE A SMALL AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF MOSTLY 10-15 KT NE WINDS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20 KT...ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EACH MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE W REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE. AN ENHANCED AREA OF SCT RW/ISOL TS CONTINUES TO THE N OF 18N WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM W OF THE WAVE AND PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTED TO AN UPPER CYCLONE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING W WITH TIME. AN AREA OF CONVECTION BE DEPICTED IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT'S WEATHER GRIDS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AREA IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME...AND MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED S OF 14N WITHIN 300 NM E AND WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE WAVE AND WILL BE CARRIED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TONIGHT AS WELL. AN EASTERLY WAVE IN THE FAR E ATLC IS ESTIMATED TO REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON FRI NIGHT. GUIDANCE FAVORS TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND NHC HAS RAISED THE DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY TO 30 PERCENT AFTER 48 HOURS. FOR NOW EXPECT A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT AND SCT TS TO SHIFT WNW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WATERS ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT PASSING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY SAT. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF STRONG TRADES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME ON MON AND TUE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ON MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AGAIN ON WED AFFECTING MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU AND FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. THE FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W AND SHOULD SHIFT E OF 55W ON MON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS E TO W ALONG 31N BETWEEN 62-75W. THE COLD SEGMENT OF THE FRONT IN NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE AS FAR S AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...AND WILL JUST BRUSH THE NORTHERN WATERS ON MON AND TUE. A SECOND TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 31N ON WED-THU. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA W OF 65W BETWEEN 25- 27N THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW FLOW IS EXPECTED AT 5-10 KT N OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MON...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON MON NIGHT SUPPORTING SW 10-15 KT FLOW EARLY MON NIGHT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING E OFF THE SE CONUS ON WED. EXPECT SW 20-25 KT CONDITIONS N OF 31N BETWEEN 72-77W MIDDAY TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING ON WED NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON TUE EVENING AND AGAIN ON THU AND FRI EVENINGS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.