000 AGXX40 KNHC 100711 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 311 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRES EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 1-2 FT. SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SW AND WESTERN GULF AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL REACH THE NORTH GULF STATES. ONE OF THEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BY WED PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND SLIGHT WIND SHIFT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 76W/77W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. IN ADDITION...AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W/56W WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUN REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TUE. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THIS EVENING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BY MON. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 25-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT BY MON...BUT MAINLY BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC. EXPECT FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENINGS WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS PRODUCING A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL HAS THIS WAVE APPROACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY FRI WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS WAVE A LOW CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT AROUND 15 KT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 1028 HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 33N38W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA W OF 65W BETWEEN 25-27N THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG AND N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT. S OF THE RIDGE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ARE OBSERVED WITH AN AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN CUBA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN... EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS ZONE AMZ123 TUE EVENING WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N W OF 60W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE CLIPPING THE FAR N WATERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THEN WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 30N LATER TODAY. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA AS A WEAK WARM FRONT ON MON WHILE THE COLD SECTOR WEAKENS AS IT PASSES E OF 65W ON MON NIGHT. SWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE N WATERS MAINLY W OF 70W BY MON. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MON NIGHT WITH 20-25 KT EXPECTED N OF 30N BETWEEN 70W-77W ON TUE AS A LOW PRES DEVELOPS N OF AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE LATE WED...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT ON FRI NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.