000 AGXX40 KNHC 092120 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...RETRANSMISSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 520 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE GULF...MAINLY FROM THE SW FL AREA TO THE TX COASTAL BEND...THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON INTO EACH EVENING. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE INTERIOR N GULF COAST NEXT WEEK WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ARRIVING ON TUE-WED. BUT EVEN THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY THE SLIGHTEST WIND SHIFT... AND THIS WILL OCCUR ONLY OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. SO LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN MAINTAINING 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N...EXCEPT FOR 10-15 KT SE-S RETURN FLOW LATE TONIGHT...AND LATE SUN NIGHT...OVER THE FAR SW AND WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MAY SEE A SIMILAR INCREASE IN THE SLY RETURN FLOW ON WED NIGHT. S OF 23N...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... AND PASS THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT AND SUN. MOISTURE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING TSTMS MAY BE ENHANCED W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EACH MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ENHANCING SCT RW/ISOL TS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR CONVECTION...BUT NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...IS NOTED OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND WILL BE CARRIED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF SCT RW/ISOL TS TO THE N OF 16N ALONG THE WAVE AND CONTINUING N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A LARGER AREA OF ISOL TS IS NOTED WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO MOVING W IN PHASE WITH THE WAVE...SO WILL CARRY ISOL TS ACROSS MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 47W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS LATE SUN...ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING MID WEEK. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF STRONG TRADES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER TIGHTEN ON SUN WITH THE AFFECTED AREA INCREASING IN SIZE OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ON SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME ON MON AND TUE...THEN TIGHTEN AGAIN ON WED AND THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO 27N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY A DISTINCT LINE OF TCU/TS AND A SW-W WIND SHIFT....THUS THE TROUGH WAS RE-INTRODUCED ON THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO MOVE E OF 65W THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS E OF 55W ON MON NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT BRIEFLY STALLED THIS MORNING BETWEEN 32-33N FROM BERMUDA TO ACROSS SOUTHERN S-CAROLINA. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING SE AGAIN AND ENTERING THE AREA FROM 31N64W TO 30N68W THIS EVENING...REACHING FROM 31N62W TO 29N70W WHERE IT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY TO BEYOND 31N75W LATE SUN. THE WESTERN PORTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE N OF THE AREA AS A WEAK WARM FRONT ON MON WHILE THE COLD SECTOR WEAKENS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-55W ON MON NIGHT. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA W OF 65W BETWEEN 25- 27N THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...BASICALLY DELAYING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. SW FLOW IS EXPECTED AT 5-10 KT N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH LATE SUN...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SUN NIGHT SUPPORTING 10- 15 KT AHEAD OF A LOW PRES CENTER MOVING E OFF THE SE CONUS ALONG 33N ON MON NIGHT...AND TURNING NE ON TUE TRAILING A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH SW...PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 31N78W AT SUNRISE TUE. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 31N...STILL EXPECTING THE GRADIENT TO FURTHER TIGHTEN WITH THE SW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT N OF THE RIDGE LATE MON NIGHT WITH 20-25 KT EXPECTED N OF 31N BETWEEN 70-76W ON TUE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT AND HAVE BLENDED THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL GRIDS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE LATE WED...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT ON FRI NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING...AND THEN EACH EVENING BEGINNING ON TUE EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.