000 AGXX40 KNHC 090715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRES EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT VARIABLE AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 1-2 FT. SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SW AND WESTERN GULF AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 85W/86W...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND PASS THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W/86W. BUOY 42056 NEAR 20N85W ALONG WITH A SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE AND 68W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS...PARTICULARLY N OF 15N. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY...THEN WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN...AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS SUN AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ON SUN EVENING RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BY MON. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 25-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT BY MON...BUT MAINLY BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC. EXPECT FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENINGS WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A 1029 HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N39W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 26W/27W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG AND N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT IN SE SWELL. S OF THE RIDGE...GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ARE OBSERVED WITH AN AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS...FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SWLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE N WATERS MAINLY W OF 70W BY MON. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MON NIGHT WITH 20-25 KT EXPECTED N OF 30N BETWEEN 70W-77W ON TUE AS A LOW PRES DEVELOPS N OF AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE LATE WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.