000 AGXX40 KNHC 081703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 103 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS...MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON INTO EACH EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N...EXPECT FOR 10-15 KT SE-S RETURN FLOW LATE EACH NIGHT INTO EARLY EACH MORNING OVER THE FAR SW AND WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. S OF 23N...EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EACH MORNING AND LOSE IDENTITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SAT...AND MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND GULF OF HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SCT RW/ISOL TS IS OBSERVED TO THE N OF 16N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER CYCLONE IS JUST W THE WAVE AXIS AND PROGRESSING WESTWARD AS WELL. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 13N ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT INLAND LATE TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SCT RW/ISOL TS EXTENDING E ACROSS THE LEEWARDS WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUING SE TO BEYOND 09N55W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SPREADING W SO WILL BE CONTINUED IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO SAT...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION ON SUN...AND REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 42W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY ON TUE. FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF STRONG TRADES DEVELOPING MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ON SUN EVENING WITH THE AFFECTED AREA INCREASING IN OVERALL SIZE...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO 28N74W WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND PASSING E OF 65W TONIGHT... AND PASSING E OF 55W ON MON NIGHT. THE SW EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH HAS WEAKENED AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS... HOWEVER IS STILL PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE FL STRAITS WHERE AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED BETWEEN AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SE OF A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL FL. A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 25N65W TO 27N80W THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW FLOW EXPECTED AT 5-10 KT N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT... THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUPPORTING 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A LOW PRES CENTER MOVING E OFF THE SE CONUS ALONG 33N ON SUN NIGHT AND TURNING NE ON MON TRAILING A TROUGH SW...PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 31N78W AT SUNRISE TUE. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 31N...DO EXPECT THE SW FLOW TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF THE RIDGE LATE MON NIGHT WITH 20-25 KT EXPECTED N OF 31N BETWEEN 70- 75W ON TUE. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND BLENDED SOME OF EACH FOR OFFICIAL GRIDS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUPPORTING SW 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE LATE WED... DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT ON THU NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SAT EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.