000 AGXX40 KNHC 060706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 306 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: WINDS - GFS AND ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. WAVES - NWPS FROM WIND GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. THIS IS PROMOTING MODERATE BREEZE OR WEAKER WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. CORRESPONDINGLY...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 0-2 FT RANGE. WHILE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT MODEST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF BY FRIDAY. RATHER LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THIS RETURN FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE GULF FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: WINDS - GFS AND ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. WAVES - NWPS FROM WIND GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ANALYZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN - ONE NEAR 80W AND ONE NEAR 68W. NEITHER WAVE HAS A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WIND OR TROUGH COMPONENT...WHILE THE EASTERN WAVE CAN SOMEWHAT BE DISTINGUISHED IN THE 700 MB FLOW AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NEITHER WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CURRENT DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN WAVE WAVE CAUSE AN ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. A NEW SURFACE TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD REACH 55W BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ONE IS PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER...AND MAY ALSO PROMOTE CONVECTION IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THURSDAY...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ON SATURDAY...AND HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...THE MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROMOTING EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES...WITH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. THE CORRESPONDING WAVE HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 4-6 FT WITH 7-8 FT JUST NORTH OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WINDS OR WAVES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN THE AREA OF STRONG BREEZE TRADEWINDS AND INCREASING THE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8-10 FT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: WINDS - GFS AND ECMWF BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. WAVES - NWPS FROM WIND GRIDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AT 32N75W EXTENDS A TROUGH SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. STRONG BREEZE SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WERE OBSERVED FROM THE 0232Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. WIND WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD... THE STRONG BREEZE SOUTHWESTERLIES AND THE ASSOCIATED HIGH SEAS WILL EXIT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH WINDS AT MODERATE BREEZE OR WEAKER. THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.