000 AGXX40 KNHC 051850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND LATEST MWW3 BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN U.S. SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH TUTT LOW MOVING WNW NEAR 21N96W. TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN N OF 25N E OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SFC...A WEAK SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION YIELDING RATHER LOW SEAS WITH SEAS IN THE 0-2 FT RANGE. BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WEAK LOW PRES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST PULLS OFF TO THE E WHILE WEAKENING. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD SW TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE IT SLIGHTLY SHIFTS N THROUGH THE SUN WEAK SFC HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS E CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS W PORTIONS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE AND ENERGY OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CARIB TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND ACROSS S GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS...A BLEND OF THE 12 MWW3 AND NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE FIRST ONE FROM HAITI TO FAR NW COLOMBIA...AND THE SECOND ONE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A SMALL AMPLITUDE TROUGH DERIVED FROM THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE CENTRAL ATLC IS PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEAR 57.5W. THE WAVES ARE MOVING W AT 20 KT...WHILE THE TROUGH IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS MORNING W OF THE TROUGH TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE WEAKENING. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ELY TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. LIGHTER ELY WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE NE 25-30 KT WINDS ON THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA OBSERVED LAST NIGHT HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT. ALTIMETER DATA FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOWED SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ON THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEAS AS LOW AS 2-4 FT WERE INDICATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA ARE IN THE RANGE OF 7-10 FT...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT ON WED. AS THE WAVES TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SW INTO BAHAMAS BUT SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK. ONCE THE WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES INTO NW CARIB AND STRAITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION FRI THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT MORE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH NE WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS REFERENCED ABOVE WILL BE DEPICTED AS A TROPICAL WAVE AFTER 24 HRS AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE GLOBAL MODELS NICELY PORTRAY THE NE TO SE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AGAIN WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WED MORNING. AN AREA OF 6-8 FT SEAS IN IN ENE SWELLS LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W. THESE SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS...A BLEND OF THE 12 MWW3 AND NWPS PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. A 1011 MB SFC LOW JUST N OF THE AREA AT 32N78W EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES RIDING IS ANALYZED TO ITS SE FROM NEAR 20N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE NOTED N OF 26N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. SE SWELLS BRINGING SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY ON WED. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1516-1518 UTC THIS MORNING DEPICTED A LARGE SWATH OF S-SW 20-30 KT WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE NW SECTION N OF ABOUT 27N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W WITH THE 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG AND JUST N OF 30N ESPECIALLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TSTM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST NEAR ITS PRESENT LOCATION THROUGH THU BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO A POSITION FROM NEAR 26N65W TO CAPE CANAVERAL THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN. TRAPPED FETCH OF ENE WINDS AROUND 20 KT OCCURRING WITH AND N OF BROAD TROPICAL WAVE MOVING 25-30 KT ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND INTO EASTERN CARIB HAS RAISED SEAS TO 6-7 FT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS AS SEEN IN A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. THESE SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WED. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN CARIB WILL TRANSPORT GOOD MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS OF SE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CNVTN AND POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.