000 AGXX40 KNHC 050827 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 427 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH AS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...WITH TUTT LOW SHIFTING W OFF YUCATAN AND ACROSS CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER CONDITIONS STABILIZING ACROSS N CENTRAL PORTIONS AS UPPER CONVERGENCE BUILDING NW OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...ACTIVE CNVTN LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE AS TUTT LOW SHIFTS W TODAY AND GENERALLY IN SYNCH WITH REMNANTS OF YUCATAN EVENING TROUGH. AT SFC...WEAK SYNOPTIC PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING SLIGHT SEAS. ELONGATED N TO S TROFFING ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE TODAY BEHIND THE EXITING BERTHA...WITH ATLC RIDGE THEN BEGINNING TO BUILD SW AND UNDERNEATH THIS...THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY N INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SFC HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS E CENTRAL GULF. THIS TO PRODUCE MODERATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS W PORTIONS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE AND ENERGY OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CARIB TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND ACROSS S GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS FRESHENING TRADES PRESENT ACROSS BASIN E OF 80W ATTM WHILE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL WAVE AHEAD OF BERTHA LIMP WWD ACROSS W PORTIONS. RECENT ASCAT PASS DEPICTED DIFFLUENT FLOW NW CARIB. ATLC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SW INTO BAHAMAS AS BERTHA AND TROFFING TO ITS W ACROSS FLORIDA LIFT OUT TO THE NE NET 36-48 HRS. THIS TO COINCIDE WITH PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS CARIB ATTM AND INTERRUPT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH THU NIGHT...BEFORE SECOND WAVE MOVES INTO NW CARIB AND STRAITS AND ALLOWS RIDGE TO BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION SAT-SUN AND BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL WIND PATTERN. GFS FORECASTING 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA ATTM...JUST AHEAD OF LEADING TROPICAL WAVE..WHILE RECENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS 8-10 FT THERE. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WWD NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF FAST MOVING SECOND TROPICAL WAVE...WITH NOCTURNAL MAX PEAKING AROUND 25 KT TONIGHT OFF COLOMBIA...THEN ONLY REACHING 20 KT WED NIGHT. SECOND WAVE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CNVTN ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES NEXT FEW DAYS. TRAPPED FETCH OF AROUND 20 KT WINDS MOVING W 25-30 KT WITH PAIR OF WAVES HAS GENERATED SEAS 7-9 FT IN ENE WIND SWELL MOVING ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS N OF 16N AND WILL SHIFT WWD ACROSS EXTREME NE CARIB AND ADJACENTATLC TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE SLOWLY FADING. MODELS SUGGEST AN ELY PERTURBATION ALONG ABOUT 40W ATTM TO MOVE W AND BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS 48-72 HRS...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT CNVTN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS 1012 MB SFC LOW OVER COASTAL WATERS OFFSHORE OF JAX WITH ELONGATED LLVL TROFFING EXTENDING S AND SW ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO SE GULF WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF ACTIVE CNVTN ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS WHILE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NE BEHIND BERTHA. SE SWELL FROM BERTHA PEAKING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NW WATERS AND NE FLORIDA/GA COASTS...WITH PEAK PERIOD OF 14 SECS AROUND 00Z. THIS SWELL TO GRADUALLY FADE LATER THIS MORNING THEN MORE STEADILY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SWELL PROPAGATES NW AND UP THE COAST. OTHERWISE...ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SW UNDER THE EXITING BERTHA NEXT FEW DAYS THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO BE ESTABLISHED ALONG 26-27N BY END OF THE WEEK. TRAPPED FETCH OF ENE WINDS AROUND 20 KT OCCURRING WITH AND N OF BROAD TROPICAL WAVE MOVING 25-30 KT ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND INTO E CARIB WILL INCREASE ENE SWELL AND RAISE SEAS ACROSS SE WATERS TO AROUND 7 FT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FADING. BROAD TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING CARIB ATTM WILL TRANSPORT GOOD MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS OF SE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU FOR ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CNVTN AND POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.