000 AGXX40 KNHC 030831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 431 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS NW PORTIONS FROM SW LA TO S CENTRAL TX AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WILL LIKELY DRIFT A BIT FARTHER SE AS NEXT S/W DROPS INTO BACKSIDE OF ERN U.S. TROUGH. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS SE GULF NO LONGER EVIDENT AT SFC BUT MOISTURE SIGNAL SEEN IN TPW ATTM...AND ELY FLOW ACROSS NW CARIB AIDING IN SHIFTING BOUNDARY REMNANTS SLOWLY WWD. VERY WEAK FLOW AND LLVL TROFFING ACROSS FLORIDA LOOKS POISED TO YIELD ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS S PORTIONS. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WIND FLOW AND MILD SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE BEFORE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS UNDERNEATH EXITING BERTHA AND ACROSS FAR S FLORIDA AND INTO GULF BASIN LATE TUE THROUGH WED....THEN LIFTS SLOWLY NWD THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK. THIS TO EVENTUALLY YIELD MODERATE SE TO S FLOW ACROSS SW AND W PORTIONS BY WEEKS END. THIS ALSO TO ALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WRN CARIB TO TRANSPORT TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE AND ENERGY ACROSS YUCATAN AND INTO SW PORTIONS TUE AND BEYOND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS LLVL CIRCULATION OF BERTHA HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE NW AND AWAY FROM NE COAST OF THE ISLAND. FRESH TO STRONG SELY FLOW NOW PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF CARIB E OF 72W...WITH 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT STILL LIKELY IN MONA PASSAGE...WHILE SRN CARIB OFF OF VENEZUELA AT 25 KT AND 7-9 FT. TUTT LOW ACROSS NW CARIB MAINTAINING VERY WEAK FLOW AT SFC AND INDUCING CNVTN ACROSS WRN CUBA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. WEAK REMNANTS OF TROPICAL WAVE AHEAD OF BERTHA ARE EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS WRN CARIB BY 48 HOURS AND WILL MOVE W INTO YUCATAN BY 72 HOURS FOR INCREASED LLVL CONVERGENCE THERE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGING FROM RECENT SYNOPTIC REASONING. ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD UNDERNEATH EXITING BERTHA TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK TO FRESHEN TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...ALSO AIDED BY TWO APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVES. PRES GRADIENT TO AFFECT N PORTIONS OF BASIN AND THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS. GFS SHOWS CARIB JET YIELDING PEAK WINDS TO 30 KT OVERNIGHT MON OFF COLOMBIA...THEN DIMINISH TO 25 TUE NIGHT AS LONG WAVE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ATTM MOVES ACROSS BASIN AND WEAKENS GRADIENT. MODELS SUGGEST ATLC RIDGE RE- ESTABLISHING BY WEEKS END AND BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MID SUMMER TRADES ACROSS BASIN. LONG ENE FETCH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS N PORTIONS OF TWO TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS ATLC...WITH LEADING WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ALONG 56W. ALTHOUGH GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS ONLY AROUND 20 KT...SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC FETCH EXISTS TO GENERATE SIZABLE AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS IN ENE WIND SWELL AND WILL MOVE INTO N HALF OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SECOND WAVE IS MOVING 25-30 KT AND WILL GRADUALLY CATCH UP TO FIRST WAVE AFTER CROSSING 70W. WIND AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH MODESTLY AFTER SECOND WAVE PASSAGE MON NIGHT-TUE WITH WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5-7 FT THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS LLVL CIRCULATION OF BERTHA HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE NW AND AWAY FROM NE COAST OF THE ISLAND. 06Z NHC FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS...WITH GFS FARTHEST RIGHT OF MODELS. TUTT LOW ACROSS NW BAHAMAS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY BUT HAS AIDED IN CREATING LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE UNDERNEATH AND TO ITS E PAST FEW DAYS...AND THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SHIFT NW AND N NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF RECURVING BERTHA. REORGANIZING ERN U.S.TROUGH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SW N ATLC AND HELP TO ACCELERATE BERTHA NWD BY MON...ALLOWING ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD UNDERNEATH BERTHA AND RE-ESTABLISH RIDGE ACROSS BASIN. AS NOTED ABOVE...NEXT TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND CARIB THROUGH MID WEEK AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH E TO ENE WINDS AND WIND SWELL YIELDING SEAS 6-8 FT ACROSS SE PORTIONS THAT WILL FADE SLIGHTLY BUT MOVE THROUGH SE BAHAMAS AND APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE...AS WELL AS SE BAHAMAS. MODEST ATLC RIDGE ALONG 26-27N BY WED NIGHT TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES SE PORTIONS AND S TO SW FLOW NW PART. PROXIMITY OF BERTHA WIND FIELD TO BAHAMAS AND COMPLEX BATHYMETRY NOT EXPECTED TO ALLOW TOO MUCH SWELL ENERGY INTO THE BANKS OR SE FLORIDA...AND MAY ONLY BE REALIZED ACROSS N FLORIDA AND SE U.S. NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.