000 AGXX40 KNHC 021813 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 213 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT W WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO OCCUR WITHIN 120 NM MAINLY NW OF THE AXIS. 1014 MB LOW PRES IS INLAND OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92.5W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW OF THE LOW RIGHT ALONG THE 60 NM OFFSHORE/COASTAL WATERS BOUNDARIES OF TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. OTHERWISE A BROAD AND WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF TO THE W CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FEATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR 15-20 KT WINDS OCCURRING WITH THE TYPICAL YUCATAN EVENING THERMAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE UPPER MEXICAN COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN FOR TUE AND BEYOND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK FROM ATLC ACROSS FL AND INTO GULF ALONG 26N TUE-WED AS T.S. BERTHA LOCATED WELL E OF THE GULF BASIN RECURVES AND LIFTS OUT OF THE SW N ATLC REGION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON BERTHA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS UNAVAILABLE FOR GFE INCORPORATION. DUE TO FAST MOTION OF BERTHA PAST FEW DAYS...WAVE GROWTH IS BEYOND WHAT WOULD BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS SMALL SYSTEM AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY OVERDONE. NOTE THE OFFICIAL MWW3 HAS NOT BEEN AVAILABLE SINCE 00Z AUG 1. THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS RUNS DO SEEM TO HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE WAVE FIELD CLOSEST TO THE CENTER AND THUS IT WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE WAS A SHIP OBSERVATION JUST NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING UP TO 14 FT...SUGGESTING A BROAD AND TRAILING WAVE FIELD GENERATED FROM A TRAPPED FETCH SCENARIO ACROSS THE NW TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. WAVE GROWTH WITH BERTHA WILL HAVE TO BEGIN ANEW...AND 12 FT SEAS CONFIGURATION LIKELY TO CHANGE DRAMATICALLY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. BERTHA IS NOW MOVING VERY CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE OR NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT...NOW BRINGING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS TO PUERTO RICO AS INDICATED BY WSR-88D AND TDWR RADAR DATA THERE. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THIS AREA AS BERTHA EXITS THROUGH SUN...BUT NOT CLEAN UP COMPLETELY AS A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC AND THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...WITH GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS YIELDING BROAD ZONE OF 20 KT WINDS WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 25 KT...AND SEAS 7-8 FT MOVING ACROSS REGIONAL ATLC WATERS AND PORTIONS OF NE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL LIGHT UP THE E CARIBBEAN SUN EVENING THROUGH MON AND THEN W HALF OF CARIB TO COAST OF NICARAGUA MON-TUE...WITH THE COLOMBIAN NOCTURNAL MAX REACHING 30 KT EACH OF THESE NIGHTS. RIDGING TO BUILD FROM CENTRAL ATLC INTO S FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MID-WEEK WHICH WILL REFOCUS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUTT LOW ACROSS AREA THE ALONG 72W/73W CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY W AND CONTINUES TO CREATE LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 70W AND BAHAMAS...AND WILL REMAIN ACTIVE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THIS MOISTURE SHIFTS NW AND TOWARD NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. BERTHA TO EMERGE OFF THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND MOVE NW ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN THEN IS FORECAST TO RECURVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SE BAHAMAS TURNING N MON...THEN TURNING NNE AND EXITING THE AREA EARLY TUE. RIDGING WILL OCCUR FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF EXITING BERTHA AND IN TANDEM WITH A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING INTO E CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE FRESH TRADES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CORRIDOR AND ENTRANCE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...REACHING 20-25 KT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING ALONG N COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA MON-TUE. THE ASSOCIATED WAVE FIELD ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL WAVES TO PRODUCE 6-7 FT ACROSS THE SE WATERS WITH POSSIBLE MAX TO 8 TUE-WED. LIMITED SWELL ENERGY EXPECTED TO BLEED THROUGH BAHAMAS AND GET ACROSS THE BANKS AND TO S AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...ALSO AIDED BY THE FAST MOTION AND TRAJECTORY MOVING AWAY FROM THIS AREA...AND THUS ATTM LIMITED EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED IN LEE OF BAHAMAS FROM THE BERTHA PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...WIND AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA EXPECTED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY N AND NW AND ACROSS N PORTIONS OF AREA THROUGH TUE BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF AREA. THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS RUNS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUN INTO MON. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO SUN. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.