000 AGXX40 KNHC 291801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 201 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 1018 MB HIGH IN W CENTRAL GULF TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING S INTO GULF COASTAL PLAINS WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH SINKING S AROUND 28N THIS AFTERNOON WITH WLY FLOW TO 15 KT AND KICKING UP SEAS 4-5 FT IN BIG BEND BASIN. ANOMALOUS JULY MID-UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEYOND WED. CURRENT FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THU AFTER PUSHING THROUGH THE NE GULF. W TO NW FLOW AROUND 15 KT ACROSS BIG BEND REGION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LATE EVENING PULSE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT OFF W AND NW COAST OF YUCATAN DAILY. MODELS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT ON FEATURES. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT/8 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE SE U.S. COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM NUDGES ATLC HIGH NNE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SINK S THROUGH THE NE GULF BEFORE DISSIPATING THU. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN FRESH AND PEAK AROUND 25 KT AT NIGHT THU AND FRI NIGHTS. INTERESTS ACROSS E AND NE CARIB SHOULD BEGIN TO FOCUS ON TROPICAL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ABOUT 40W THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY GAINING BETTER ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WNW TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE NE CARIB INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL AND CLOSEST TO THE FORECAST AGREED ON WITH NHC/WPC COORDINATION. STILL EARLY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REALIGN SW TO NE THROUGH DAY 3 AS SE U.S. COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM NUDGES THE ATLC HIGH NE...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO FAR NW WATERS BY THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY...SW FLOW 15-20 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW WATERS N OF 28-29N W OF 73W AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT THROUGH WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIE WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED...THEN RETROGRADE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI BACK ACROSS NW WATERS AND ACROSS FLORIDA AS A LOW ALONG THE FRONT LIFTS N FROM NE FL AND OUT OF REGION. MODERATE E-SE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS...WITH SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH THU. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TROPICAL LOW ALONG 40W THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS AND CMC ARE THE ONLY GLOBAL MODELS THAT HOLD ONTO A CLOSED LOW CENTER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC SAT NIGHT/SUN. THE FORECAST AGREED ON DURING NHC/WPC COORDINATION WAS CLOSEST TO THE GFS FORECAST...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS HERE AS WELL AS DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WHEN THERE ARE NO NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND WINDS/SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT/8 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER/STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.