000 AGXX40 KNHC 290717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS WNW TO ESE ACROSS BASIN CENTERED ON 1018 MB HIGH IN W CENTRAL GULF. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING S INTO GULF COASTAL PLAINS WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH SINKING S INTO IMMEDIATE NE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WLY FLOW TO ITS S 15-20 KT AND KICKING UP SEAS 4-5 FT IN BIG BEND BASIN. ACTIVE EVENING CNVTN HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVED AWAY FROM SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS AND INTO NWLY SHEAR. ANOMALOUS JULY MID-UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...AND GRADUALLYWEAKEN BEYOND WED. CURRENT FRONT WILL STALL ALONG ABOUT 29N TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND SINK SLIGHTLY S THROUGH WED BEFORE DRIFTING N ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO PUSH S AND INTO SE GULF ALONG ABUT 26N BY WED-THU. W TO NW FLOW AROUND 15 KT ACROSS BIG BEND REGION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LATE EVENING PULSE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT OFF W AND NW COAST OF YUCATAN DAILY. MODELS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT ON FEATURES WITH ECMWF AND UKMET A BIT FARTHER S AND SE WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND FRONT...AND HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS THROUGH THU THEN GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TROPICAL WAVE HAS SHIFTED WWD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND LEAVING FRESH FLOW ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS PER LATEST ASCAT PASSES...WHERE PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 5 FT POSSIBLY TO 6. ATLC RIDGE NOSING INTO E APPROACH TO STRAITS OF FL AND PRODUCING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT FOR WINDS TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA ATTM WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 FT SHORTLY. ATLC RIDGE TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW NUDGE ATLC HIGH NNE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO E AND NE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS TO THUS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN FRESH AND PEAK AROUND 25 KT AT NIGHT THU AND FRI NIGHTS. INTERESTS ACROSS E AND NE CARIB SHOULD BEGIN TO FOCUS ON TROPICAL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ABOUT 37W THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY GAINING BETTER ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WNW TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE NE CARIB INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS AND UKMET MOST AGGRESSIVE. GFS REMAINS SLOWEST OF MODELS AND MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPMENT...WHILE UKMET A BIT FASTER...AND THE WEAKEST SOLUTION OF ECMWF SLIGHTLY MORE WWD AND A BIT FASTER THAN UKMET. WILL CONTINUE TO TRY TO CREATE GRIDS BASED ON A UKMET-ECMWF CONSENSUS...BUT DIFFICULT TO DO WITH AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IN GFE. 06Z SHIPS GUIDANCE JUST CAME IN RELATIVELY AGGRESSIVE...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE WITHIN 24 HOURS...REACHING TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU NIGHT AND ENTERING NE CARIB FRI NIGHT- EARLY SAT. NW CURVATURE OF SYSTEM BY GFS BEING INFLUENCED BY RAPID DEVELOPMENT...AND PREFER UKMET SOLUTION ATTM. STILL EARLY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REALIGN SW TO NE THROUGH DAY 3 AS E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW NUDGE ATLC HIGH NE...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...SW FLOW 15-20 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW WATERS N OF 28-29N W OF 75W AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT THROUGH WED. FRONT TO STALL AND WEAKEN BY 48 HRS FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN DRIFT VERY SLOWLY W WED- FRI BACK ACROSS NW WATERS AND ACROSS FLORIDA AS E COAST LOW LIFTS N AND OUT OF REGION. MODERATE E-SE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS...WITH SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH THU. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TROPICAL LOW ALONG 37W EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE LOOKING MORE LIKELY ATTM. CURRENTLY PREFER A ECMWF-UKMET CONSENSUS WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS NE CARIB...AND GFS SEEMS TO REFLECT MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND THUS PREMATURE RECURVATURE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.