000 AGXX40 KNHC 240638 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TRANQUIL PERIOD CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD THROUGH MON NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 27N. MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAVE OPENED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE 00Z MODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE. THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 0110 UTC AND 0158 UTC SHOW 20-22 KT WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS N OF 15N AND WESTWARD TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAK WITH ITS INITIALIZATION FROM ANGUILLA TO SAINT JOHN...CARRYING THE STRONGER SWATH OF WINDS FARTHER S IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N. THE ASCAT PASS MISSED THE AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION E OF THE ISLANDS WHERE THE GFS DEPICTS 25 KT WINDS BETWEEN 14.5N-16N. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE ASCAT PASSES...BUT OVERALL THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLY WELL INITIALIZED. AN ALTIKA PASS FROM 2206 UTC ALONG 58W SHOWED SEAS TO 10 FT NEAR 14.5N IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GFS. THE MWW3 DEPICTS SEAS TO 9 FT. THE EC WAVE CAPS SEAS AT 8 FT WHILE THE UKMET WAVE SHOWS MORE SUPPORT FOR THE MWW3...BUT DEPICTS ITS HIGHEST SEAS E OF THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE NWPS IS 1-2 FT LOWER THAN THE MWW3 HERE...SO THE MWW3 WAS RELIED ON MORE INITIALLY FOR WAVES. ONCE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE GFS GRADUALLY SLOWS THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON GYRE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF NEVER ALLOWS WINDS TO REACH 25 KT WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A SWATH PASSING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND S OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN HOW WELL THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HANG ON...THE STRONGER GFS FORECAST LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY THE 0250 UTC ASCAT-B PASS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS HERE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON-MON. THE 00Z GFS NOW CARRIES ONE BARB ON GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY SAT MORNING HERE...BUT IT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. WILL NOT BITE ON ISSUING A GALE WARNING OFF COLOMBIA EARLY SAT MORNING. THE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SHRINK FROM THE WEEKEND INTO MON WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS AS TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE NORTH END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TO PASS INTO THE ATLC WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY...ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA FRI AND TO JUST N OF CUBA SAT. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL GRIDS ALLOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TO BUILD N OF PUERTO RICO LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY THROUGH SUN...DIMINISHING WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS AS TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. IN ADDITION...THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS WINDS TO REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG HERE THROUGH THE DAY FRI AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH. AGAIN...THE UKMET AND GFS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THE STRONG GFS HAS DONE A REASONABLE JOB THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INITIALIZING THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE HERE. ITS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NW WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON WITH WINDS REACHING AS HIGH AS A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. FOR NOW...HAVE NO REASON TO GO AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION WHEN ADJUSTING THE FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.