000 AGXX40 KNHC 201740 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WHILE STARTING TO DRIFT TO THE NW-N THROUGH MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL SPILL OUT INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL MEANDER IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 26N/27N. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE BASIN...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY DRIVEN TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH DAY...LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY UP TO 25 KT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE CARIBBEAN...MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN MEDIUM- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ATLC. IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH BRIEF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WARNING HERE WHILE WAITING FOR MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 12-14 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. A SURROUNDING AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 7-9 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE BASIN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE PAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ALONG THE ITCZ CURRENTLY NEAR 36W. A WEAK LOW WAS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY BUT RECENT IMAGERY ALONG WITH A FEW SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS SHOW NO CLOSED CIRCULATION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...TAKING THE TROPICAL WAVE MORE WESTWARD REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE NIGHT... MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST FRESH LEVELS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS BUILDING SEAS TO 7-8 FT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE LATEST GFS RUN IS STILL SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH A BULLSEYE OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NOTED AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES ACROSS NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST S OF 25N (EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS)...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS N OF 25N. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK. THE GFS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THAT SCENARIO WITH A MUCH WEAKER INDICATION OF ANY CLOSED LOW ALONG WITH TAKING THE TROPICAL WAVE MORE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE SW N ATLC BASIN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.