000 AGXX40 KNHC 191834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS BREACHED THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING MAINLY WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE. THIS FRONT IS NOW STALLING RIGHT ALONG THE 60 NM...THEN IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK NW WHILE DISSIPATING INTO SUN. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE ATLC COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE GULF STREAM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W OVER FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLE MAKING IT INTO THE EASTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS. LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS TROUGH REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT MANAGES TO BREACH THE EASTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD WILL BE NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY DRIVEN TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE CARIBBEAN. ECMWF/TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ATLC. IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPANDING SLIGHTLY SUN AS TROUGHING N OF THE AREA OFF THE FLORIDA ATLC COAST DRIFTS W. SEAS WILL BE 7-10 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...AND UP TO 12 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUILDING TO UP TO 14 FT BY WED MORNING AS THE AREA OF SURROUNDING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPANDS LENGTHENING THE FETCH AREA. ALSO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS IN THE LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...WEAKER THEREAFTER BEFORE STRENGTHENING BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LATE WED EVENING INTO EARLY THU. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CURRENTLY WELL E OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE GFS IS A STRONG OUTLIER BY DEVELOPING 1014 MB LOW PRES CURRENTLY NEAR 09N31W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...INTENSIFYING IT TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY MON MORNING. THE GFS ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO CLIP THE NE CORNER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT. NONE OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE THIS AGGRESSIVE OR AS FAR N WITH THIS LOW. PREFERRED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION... WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF/TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LINGERING BETWEEN THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE ATLC COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE GULF STREAM. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W POTENTIALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS E OF 77W AND E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE ATLC WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...MOVING IT NW AND CLIPPING THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS IMPACTS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC BEGINNING WED. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IT WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER DURING SUN EVENING...INCREASING BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA MON EVENING AND TUE EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.