000 AGXX40 KNHC 190635 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD WILL BE NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY DRIVEN TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE 20-25 KT WINDS SEEN N OF THE YUCATAN ON THE 0344 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE GFS/MWW3 WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE YUCATAN AND SW GULF. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CLEAR BY MON WHEN THE ECMWF MOVES THE HIGH CENTER INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AS A RETROGRADING ATLC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TUE. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE TROUGH THROUGH FLORIDA AND PUSH THE HIGH W. THE UKMET SIDES WITH THE ECMWF HERE AND THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE TROUGH WHILE IN THE ATLC. THESE DIFFERENCES PRIMARILY IMPACT THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL CHOICE. THE ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE CARIBBEAN. ECMWF/EC WAVE BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ATLC. WELL E OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE GFS QUICKLY BECOMES A STRONG OUTLIER BY DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 25W THIS AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFYING IT TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY MON MORNING. THE GFS ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO CLIP THE NE CORNER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU INTO THU NIGHT. NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE THIS AGGRESSIVE OR FAR N WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREFERRED TO STICK CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPANDING SLIGHTLY SUN AS THE TROUGHING N OF THE AREA OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST MIGRATES NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH EARLY SUN AND SHRINK IN AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE STRONGER GFS GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS/MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. EC WAVE BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AS MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER CARRYING A LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC...CLIPPING THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE ZONES. THIS IMPACTS THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC BEGINNING WED. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE REASONABLE HERE. THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA BEGINNING SAT WHEN THE TROUGHING CURRENTLY ANALYZED OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AS IT RETROGRADES TOWARD FLORIDA MON. THESE DIFFERENCE PRIMARILY IMPACT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO RETROGRADE THE TROUGH THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND HOLDS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FARTHER W AS A RESULT. THE UKMET SIDES WITH THE ECMWF HERE...AND THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLC...SO THE ECMWF/EC WAVE WERE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. THIS LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER FORECAST FOR WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.