000 AGXX40 KNHC 181744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 144 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TRANQUIL PERIOD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD WILL BE NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY DRIVEN TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND GENERALLY DOES A BETTER JOB WITH THESE LOCAL FEATURES. THE GFS/MWW3 WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY FORECAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA... WITH THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPANDING SLIGHTLY SUN AS THE TROUGHING N OF THE AREA OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST MIGRATES NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH EARLY SUN AND SHRINK IN AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN SHOULD ONLY PULSE TO 15-20 KT THEREAFTER. FRESH TRADES PRIMARILY BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC HAS BUILT SEAS TO 7-9 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 45W IS EXPECTED TO ALSO BRING SEAS TO 7 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGER GFS GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS/MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA BEGINNING SAT WHEN THE TROUGHING CURRENTLY ANALYZED OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN. SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE TIMING OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AS IT RETROGRADES TOWARD FLORIDA MON. THESE DIFFERENCE PRIMARILY IMPACT PRECIPITATION. THE GFS STILL IS SLOWER TO RETROGRADE THE TROUGH THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND HOLDS THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FARTHER W AS A RESULT. THESE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WIND/SEA FORECAST. THE GFS FORECAST WAS PREFERRED ELSEWHERE AND THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A GOOD REASON TO STRAY FROM IT HERE. IN THE SW N ATLC...CONTINUED TO USE THE GFS/MWW3 TO ADJUST THE FORECAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY/SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.