000 AGXX40 KNHC 171725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RIDGE EXTENDS WNW FROM NW CUBA TO NEAR 26N92W. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA TO PORT ARTHUR TX. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PERRY FL TO 27N88W. THE FRONT WILL LINGER IN NE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH A HIGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR 25N85W BY TONIGHT THEN MEANDER NEAR 28N85W THROUGH MON. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SE 10-15 KT WINDS IN WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THEN INCREASE TO 15- 20 KT THIS EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 92W THROUGH SUN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF 20- 25 KT FLOW ESPECIALLY NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE EVENING. THE EASTERN GULF WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS AROUND THE RIDGE AND ITS EMBEDDED HIGH CENTER. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND SAT... AND REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN. RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN AN AREA ROUGHLY FROM 11-16N BETWEEN 70-78W. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL EXPAND SLIGHTLY N AND W TO 17N AND 82W BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AGAIN THIS EVENING OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA S OF 17N EACH EVENING THROUGH SAT EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO NW CUBA WILL RETRACT NE THROUGH SAT. SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT FLOW N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT DRIFTS INTO NW WATERS THEN STALLS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 30N77W ON FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT. REMNANTS OF THE LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE W ON SUN AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS W ALONG 30N TO THE NE FLORIDA ON MON. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT ACROSS WATERS S OF 25N...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEGINNING FRI NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MON WITH MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT 20-25 KT CONDITIONS EACH EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.