000 AGXX40 KNHC 170534 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 134 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS UNAVAILABLE...MWWS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS WNW FROM THE FL STRAITS TO NEAR 27N91W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE GA TO THE MS DELTA THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE LA COASTAL PLAINS TO NEAR PORT ARTHUR TX. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO 27N88W...PRECEDED BY SW 10-15 KT FLOW WITH SEAS TO 4 FT. THE COLD SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NE GULF WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY THEN THE RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE SHIFTING NORTHWARD WITH A HIGH CENTER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 25N85W BY THIS EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR 29N85W ON FRI AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL THEN MEANDER THROUGH MON. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SE-S 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 92W TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF 20-25 KT FLOW ESPECIALLY NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENINGS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES E OF THE AREA THE EASTERN GULF WILL BE DOMINATED BY 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS AROUND THE RIDGE AND ITS EMBEDDED HIGH CENTER. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS UNAVAILABLE...MWWS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND SAT...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PORTION ON SUN AND MON. EXPECT STRONG TRADES TO CONTINUE OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... ROUGHLY WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11-16N BETWEEN 70-78W TODAY. THE AFFECTED AREA IS THEN FORECAST TO EXPAND N TO ALONG 18N AND EXPAND W TO ALONG 82W BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AGAIN THIS EVENING OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA S OF 17N EACH EVENING THROUGH SAT EVENING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS UNAVAILABLE...MWWS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO JUST N OF CUBA NEAR THE CAY SAL BANK. THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETRACT NE ON FRI NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE NW BAHAMAS ON SAT... THEN SHIFT FURTHER N AND BUILD W ALONG 30N TO THE NE FL COAST ON MON. SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT FLOW CURRENTLY OBSERVED N OF THE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW WATERS. THE FRONT WILL NEARLY STALL WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTING A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 30N77W ON FRI WHERE IT MAY MEANDER FOR A DAY BEFORE FILLING. REMNANTS OF THE LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE BACK W ON SUN AND MON AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS W. EASTERLY TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 25N...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEGINNING ON FRI NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT 20-25 KT CONDITIONS EACH EVENING BEGINNING SAT EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.